MARKETS
I suspect because markets have had an excellent year and you'd have to be pretty awful not to have gained a lot so far that my mailbox has become full of get rich quick merchants.
Those sending me the mails pretend to have read the book and my musings and then go full steam ahead asking me the best ways to play Forex, indicies, the gold price and.... yes indeed. All the things I warn NOT to do!
I'm old enough to have realised by now that everyone is bonkers to a certain extent and that the primary driver to people getting into the markets is greed to make tons of money as fast as possible.
I also know whatever I say in an email won't stop whoever it is carrying on with behaviour likely to lose them loads.
One example is an email from this chap saying he read my book then asking
"Can you start trading with just £1,000 and build enough over 1-3 years to quit a job? Do you believe day trading doesn't work?"
I have no clue how many times in the book and on this site and everywhere else I point out you need a decent capital to be a full-timer and quit work.
Or no-one wins day trading except perhaps a few robots funded by millions of pounds.
Of course my reader wants me to say "Yes of course you can, go for it!!"
I actually tell him "No chance whatsoever quitting your job with £1,000." And "Day trading is the road to the bailiffs coming round taking your plazma telly."
Then he admits (after reading the book) from jumping from trading Forex to trading Indices and blowing up all his accounts. He feels he still "wants to make it work".
I know and you know whatever I tell him, he will try trading Forex again and repeat the same mistakes.
I'm afraid people don't want me to tell them 25% on your capital per year is a brilliant return and that is what you should aim for.
Now this just landed in the mailbox as I wrote that.
"What do I have to do to earn £10,000-£20,000 a month income? Do I really need £100,000?"
Goodness me, well at least he has some idea. I wrote back and suggested at least £500,000 for that but more realistically nearer a million!
He won't want to hear that either.
Of course out there are tons of ads appealing to quick greed, making fast bucks on Forex etc.
I still and will always totally refuse to accept any advertising here for Forex sites, systems and all the rest promising quick money. (Shame as I could make a fortune from it if I didn't have some morality.)
Anyway to be honest so many mails on get rich quick lines are making me wonder whether to just quit doing this site. Life's short. Why am I wasting my time? I could be doing other things. Does anyone pay any attention to someone like me in the era of social media?
I wonder how much longer before there is some kind of correction. There are a few signs around.
Reader Jay wrote to me: "In one of your books you mention the sign of a market topping is when Starbucks offers free lattes.
"Guess what happened in Wimbledon Starbucks today!"
So one of two red flags starting to appear I'd say. Though with low interest rates not sure where the money is going to go.
I had a look round social media (not for long!) and everyone is congratulating themselves on what a great year they had. Etc. Just be wary.
Don't follow others including me. Be your own person. I know it is hard as we are a pack animal. More in my new book on psychology Trade Like A Shark.
I get lots of mails from people who have followed others on Twitter etc. One said he had followed someone who had shorted the FTSE based on "technicals" and lost 700 points or £7,000.
He can't blame the Twitter guy, he should blame himself.
I had this from a reader this week: "My no 1 advice is to close that Twitter account. That shuts out the noise and a whole load of idiots who think they are experts." Not everyone is rubbish but if you follow people it will lead you to overtrade and lots worse.
What you have to do is work out what you are going to do should the markets head down. I have my plan! We'll be covering that in depth with those of you coming to the seminar on the 3rd.
A quiet couple of weeks for me on the buying front after the little splurge after the last seminar.
With markets potentially toppy right now something has to be spot on to get into the portfolio. There is never any point in buying something just because you haven't bought anything for a bit. Sometimes being patient and not doing anything is the right move.
There are three shares I really like at the moment and have averaged up (remember averaging down is for losers!) (I lost £9k averaging down on Coffee republic in 2002!)
First buy then is Safecharge (SFE) The company put out an excellent statement I thought this week. It is in the hot area of payments and has a mountain of cash.
On top of that it sensibly tells us likely profits to base a valuation on - and it is moving to secure higher quality customers - and it has also massively raised the dividend.
The share are tightly held so a bid might be difficult but surely one or two payment firms must be taking a look?
The other is the lovely Somero (LON:SOM) . That just had to be bought - in the right area at the right time with great fundamentals.
One mag today has also written a story suggesting it could be a takeover target. If they are right, I wonder whether there could be substantial upside up to 450p?
Although a US share it is buyable in an ISA but some firms ask for a form to be filled out first.
And Sopheon (LON:SPE) again, that had to be bought.
A fantastic report today. Profits are booming at SPE, it has tons of cash, doubled its net assets.
So despite gains in the last year there looks like more to come and indeed a broker today has issued a target 130p above the current price. (Once again thanks to Martin for bringing this up at the seminar a few weeks ago!!)
SPE is strangely volatile and I tend to prefer buying it on a dip.
As mentioned above with a few red flags dotted about for the first time this year I have topsliced a few trades, especially the ones that were doing well and that means I am now in a bit of cash.
So here's a few shares I topsliced (sold some of) or sold all on one or two.
Recent Dty went for a profit of £251 (kept the main lot). Dia - the recent ones went for a profit of £726. After taking a nice profit on Vanl recently of £716 a warning sent shares down and took a loss of £1,200 - sadly stops don't work in these situations. Possibly been oversold now and might turn back into a buy.
Gnc was cut for a profit of £570. Serv went for a profit of £193. Rfx for a profit of £570. So profits minus losses add up to a profit of £1,110. That all leaves me with some decent cash floating around for the future.
Some fantastic moves higher for some of the portfolio.
The best news today was the massive move up for Franchise brands I bought in September. I've now more than doubled on the remaining holding (shame I took some profits previously) - the website holding alone now shows profits of nearly £8,000.
It's done a reverse takeover of another company making it massively bigger and I think I will stick with it for a bit longer, very nice news. Long-termer Softcat produced a super report and I'm up more than 100 points there.
Burford has proved a fantastic trade, and I wonder whether I can end up doubling my money on that one. Long-termer Vectura came up with a bullish statement and the shares are starting to motor.
Paysafe continues a lovely move higher and if it can break up through highs more could be on the table.
Nothing causes me great alarm - however whenever gains are good one should always turn cautious. It is too easy to throw away good gains and if the market turns I will gradually continue to topslice the gains made.