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Merkel vs. Trump: Rumble in the Jungle

Published: 08:07 17 Mar 2017 GMT

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FTSE 100 Index called to open -5pts at 7410 after a slight pull back overnight from yesterday’s fresh all-time highs of 7445, however is holding up at intersecting support around the 7410 level. From here, bulls will be hoping that 7410 will provide a springboard for a return to yesterday’s highs of 7445 with a little help from rising lows support dating back to 9 March while bears will be hoping for an early break of those twin support levels for a return back below 7400. Watch levels: Bullish 7420, Bearish 7395.

Calls for a slightly negative open come after the US dollar finds a floor overnight following two days of Fed-inspired weakness further exacerbated by a hawkish BoE, applying the brakes to the commodity sector rally that took off after the central bank stuck to its guns regarding further rate hikes. This could, however, provide some upside for the UK’s FTSE 100 as its international contingent benefit from translational gains derived from GBP weakness.

Asian markets ignored the lead from US markets as bourses across the region rally to put themselves on course for their best week since July. Australia's ASX is higher thanks to Real Estate, Financial and Industrial strength, all winners thanks to the lasting impact of the Fed’s meeting on Wednesday, although Japan’s Nikkei underperforms despite a firm dollar as state intervention is ruled out for the beleaguered Toshiba.

US equity markets finished Thursday mostly lower, as delayed Fed-inspired strength from the Financial sector helped to offset weakness in interest sensitive Utility stocks and Healthcare as expectations that the Trump administration's first budget may cut spending weigh. DuPont was the lead laggard on the Dow Jones as it closed marginally lower, while the S&P500 suffered from the weakness in Utilities. The Nasdaq, however, closed 0.01% higher to outperform its peers.

Crude Oil’s recovery rally may have stalled somewhat as the dollar finds its footing, however is holding up at key support levels ahead of this evening’s Baker Hughes Rig Count, a key US production metric. US Crude remains just over a dollar away from the key $50 level, although is steady at $48.70 support, while Brent has dipped below $52 to $51.60 rising lows support.

Gold price is virtually unchanged overnight as the precious metal reacts to a firm US dollar after two days of weakness. Having been the biggest winner of the Fed rate hike - or rather the central bank’s unchanged forecasts - the safe haven asset is expected to enjoy its first positive week in the last three. Its price is holding above $1226, although USD resurgence could lead to a test of $1223 support.

With this week’s central bank updates and the Dutch election now in the rear view mirror, in focus today will be a multitude of high level political summits.

The US President Donald Trump is hosting the German President Angela Merkel, as the leader of the Eurozone’s engine room meets face to face with the outspoken US chief for the first time since he took office. In Europe, Theresa May will address the Conservative Spring Forum around midday - expect ‘Brexit means Brexit’ soundbites aplenty and potentially some remarks towards the SNP - while the G20 meeting of Finance Ministers in Baden-Baden will likely be headlined by US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin’s first appearance on the global stage (trade in focus?) and, of course, the looming challenge of Brexit.

Datawise, the Eurozone’s Visible Trade Balance is forecast to shrink slightly ahead of the UK’s official triggering of Article 50, while this afternoon, US Industrial Production is expected to bounce back once more to territory in February after January’s 5-month low and Manufacturing Production is expected to improve to equal December’s 10-month high. The University of Michigan Sentiment is expected to recover slightly after February’s pull back, while the Baker Hughes Rig Count will, as always, provide some indication of US crude oil production heading into the weekend.

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