I think after BT slumped 20% we can safely say this. Repeat after me: "There is no such thing anymore as a low risk share". We must remember at any moment we might be holding a company where "accounting irregularities" come up.
Or a big company where things just go wrong. Like Tescos. Even Warren Buffet got fooled by that one. Easyjet's gone from 1800 to a tenner.
So never assume your money is in anything "safe". The main point is never put too much money into one share because you really are asking for trouble.
Ok, so that's the end of the Santa Rally spreadbet!
I didn't end up making the full £25,000 but I made about £20,000 all in all as I am sure some of you looking at my ftse trades live at the seminar could spot.
So to sum it up I tightened stops and they were all finally hit early this week to take out all my remaining FTSE longs. As I said I had never expected to carry on with the FTSE longs in January but it just kept going up.
I suspect switching to shorts soon may pay off but the Dow is riding high so I'm going to wait a bit to see which way it all goes first.
Spreadex.com/nakedtrader is quite a nice platform to play the FTSE - very decent execution and they are good on the small companies too.
Here's to the next Santa rally. Every year it has paid for my two main holidays in Dubai and Marbella.
Well I suspect it is going to be a Trumping volatile market. After all who knows what Trump is going to tweet next.
I don't know what to make of it but let's say it is pretty entertaining to have a tweeting President. Let's face it, Obama was a bit dull. There isn't going to be a dull moment this year.
Anyway enough rambling and onto some trades. More than usual as I just did a seminar and that's where most of my ideas come from these days!
I bought some Safecharge (LON:SCH) which we discussed at the seminar. Four reasons for buying.
A. It looks cheap. Trading on a low multiple looking at forecast next profit and the current market cap. I would rate it nearer 300p.
B. It has tons of cash.
C. It pays a massive dividend, nearly 7%!
D. It looks a sitting duck for a takeover from a bigger payments company such as Paysafe or Worldpay.
Downside? Perhaps it could lose a major customer. And its shares look a tad suspiciously cheap but I am willing to take that risk! And there seems to be a big supply of shares stopping upside. Anyway I have bought quite a few.
I've bought some RWS - got some live at the seminar using direct access, thus getting the shares at the sell price rather than the buy price so saving quite a few points on the spread. (I go through how to do this in depth at seminars).
At first glance it looks expensive - however the company has totally changed. It recently used its massive cash pile on an acquisition which is going to totally transform its profits in the future - so its high rating figure looks deserved.
I liked the very strong indeed last statement - profits are surging and despite spending so much on the acquisition it only has a tiny debt.
For me, one to tuckaway for a year or two in the ISA.
I I picked up some more ITV on a bit of weakness. More and more noise is brewing about a potential bid. There are so many companies out there looking to add TV content - Apple, Netflix, Amazon, all with big money.
If a bid battle was to ensue it is possible 300p might be the asking price which would be a nice gain. Risk of course it nothing happens and the shares slide back.
I picked up some more Next Fifteen (LON:NFC) - I like this one, a nice under the radar share no one is interested in apart from me! A decent trading statement this week - it is buying up rival companies and keeps adding decent contracts such as General Motors, Unilever and Deliveroo.
I've been holding "jam tomorrow" share Xeros (LON:XSG) for some time and it has proved a jammy buy, up £6,000 on it for the site and a lot more personally. While a risky one for sure, there is potential for a massive upside and I have bought a small amount more at a higher price.
It has a bead technology which cleans clothes using hardly any water and a lot less energy and has contracts with all the top hotel groups. Very useful for drought areas like California. It has plenty of cash too so no need to raise more money for the moment. Someone at the seminar pondered a bid from someone like Proctor and Gamble. I hadn't thought of that but I do wonder. I reckon a bidder may have to pay double the current price.
And I added a bit more LPA - been a lovely one so far. I love their write-ups. Last time they said they were "galloping". This time they are "moving onto a new level". Profits are steaming up. Whatever they are doing they are doing it well! It is only just about allowable for me being rather small - however if it carries on moving to new levels, so will the share price. Could be a little gem!
I don't tend to put up shorter-term spreadbets here. Mainly through laziness and also because updates are every two weeks. But for a change here are a couple that I brought up at the seminar - both short-term trading range ideas.
I went for a shorter-term trade in Just Eat. It's not a business I want to hold but took advantage of some weakness to buy into a trading range using a spreadbet, the idea to buy near the bottom of its range and sell soon as it heads near the top of it. Let you know how it does next time!
With Dominos Pizza (LON:DOM) I went for a short (betting on it to go down). It's because it has a trading range of 320ish - 380 ish. So my plan is to short it from 380 down to maybe 325-330 then back up. I'll keep you posted!
I ummed and ahhed as to whether to take profits on IG and I succumbed to the temptation - just! I sold taking profits of £2,932 . Its statement was fine and it is a great company. But there are regulatory pressures, customers may soon not be allowed so much margin and its profits are likely to be lower as the FCA clamps down. But, the bad news looks pretty much all in the price and I would think about buying back on any weakness.
Phtm got hit by stories in the press about photo booths becoming redundant after passport pix will be allowed to be taken by smartphones etc. But actually this was already known and it's not such a big part of the business. Phtm has tons of cash and lots of other businesses but I sold and took profits of £2,095 on the basis the shares will be under the cosh for a while and unlikely to rise. Looking to re-enter on a bad day.
Van Elle put out a statement which I thought was ok but the market didn't like. I was in a good profit but ended up with a loss. Under my get out quick policy I quit for a loss of £84. EMR's statement was decent but I feel the share price is up with events now so that is sold for a profit of £3,005.
So total profits taken minus losses for the site is a profit of £7,948.
** Next beginners/improvers seminar Mar 3rd - email me at robbiethetrader@aol.com if interested - Early bird discount on offer.
In the main very pleased with holdings at the mo. Highlights include Somero which has shifted nicely higher, Burford goes well too and Telecom Plus keeps creeping up under the radar. Iomart looks good as it tries to close above 300p, potential bid there at 400p I think.