In the news: Mariana Resources, Shanta GOLD, West African Resources, Base Resources & The Alchemist
FROM THE BROKING DESK
We have a few items of news today. In the Companies section we have a review of the amazingly robust results of a Preliminary Economic Assessment into the development of the Hot Maden Project in Turkey, in which Mariana Resources† has a 30% interest. The study delivered a post-tax NPV8 of US$1.4bn for the whole project and an IRR of 153%. We also review the quarterly production report from Shanta Gold, a company that is building a solid reputation for delivery from its New Luika operations in Tanzania.
You might have missed this on West African Resources (we did!). The company has now received the mining permit for its lead project in Burkina Faso; this has been renamed Sanbrado (it was formerly Tanlouka). With this significant milestone passed, the company is now focused on the delivery of the definitive feasibility study for the project, which is scheduled to be completed by the end of 1Q17.
Just to remind you about our latest publications. Jim Taylor put out Base Resources*† — December Quarterly Activities Report, 17 January 2017. The company’s latest quarterly figures show it continuing to offer quality exposure to improving mineral sands markets. Production was largely stable, with guidance for 2017 largely unchanged.
We also published our latest edition of The Alchemist. This was focused on zinc, which should benefit from rising commodity prices, production cuts, minimal new mine development and growth in demand. The piece looks at where investors can obtain exposure to zinc miners. It can be viewed here.
COMPANIES
MARIANA RESOURCES
LON:MARL| £0.835 | US$128m
Stellar Economics Highlighted in the Hot Maden PEA
Mariana Resources has announced the results of its Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) of the 30%-owned Hot Maden gold-copper project in Turkey. Headline figures includes a base case of 1.0Mtpa mined, a nine-year mine life producing 2.6Moz Au and 142,000t Cu, an IRR of 153% and an NPV8 of US$1.4bn.
COMMENT: The Hot Maden PEA assumes very low operating costs and a low upfront capital intensity from a sizeable underground mining operation. The economics showing a post-tax NPV8 of US$1.4bn and an IRR of 153% highlight why Mariana’s stock price has quintupled over the last 12 months. The pace of development has been fast, with no sign of letting up. The current programme includes a further 10,000m of drilling, with the next milestone the planned publication of a pre-feasibility study in 3Q17. Subject to financing and permitting, we suggest that this could see the completion of a DFS and the project construction completed by the end of 2018.
Mariana’s flagship asset is the Hot Maden Project in Turkey — Hot Maden is a gold-copper project in north-eastern Turkey. It is a joint venture, of which Mariana owns 30%. The JV partner owning 70% is Turkey-based Lidya Madencilik Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (Lidya), the mining arm of Çalık Holding, a private Turkish conglomerate with operations in energy, construction, mining, textile, finance and telecommunications. The company’s 30% interest was acquired as part of its acquisition of Aegean Metals Group (announced in September 2014). Drilling commenced in December 2014 and was performed (and fully funded) by Lidya in order to earn its 70% interest.
Very low capital intensity is key to driving IRR — Upfront capex is expected to be US$169m, which equates to US$51/oz AuEq over life-of-mine. Total capex (upfront + sustaining) is expected to be US$261m, which equates to US$79/oz AuEq life-of-mine.
Low-cost underground mining adds to the positive economics — The mine plan assumed in the PEA is an all underground operation using transverse and longitudinal long-hole open stoping. The base rate for mining and processing is 1.0Mtpa, with an assumed mineable quantity of 7Mt at 11 g/t gold and 1.9% Cu over a nine-year mine life. Mining costs are assumed to be low at US$31.05/t.
The gravity and flotation process delivers high recoveries — Metallurgical testing to date has been done through flotation and concentration, and indicated high recoveries of both copper and silver. The assumed recoveries vary based on grade, but the life-of-mine weighted averages are 88% Au and 90% Cu. The flow sheet for the PEA assumes the production of one standard copper-gold concentrate, and a second gold-bearing pyrite concentrate for sale to smelters. Processing these concentrates is assumed to cost US$15.13/t.
Economics highlight a low-cost operation with a very high NPV — In calculating the NPV, the company assumed a gold price of US$1,250/oz and a copper price of US$2.75/lb. Royalties on the property include a 2.6% state royalty and a 2% NSR to pay to Sandstorm. The PEA highlights an NPV of US$1.4bn using an 8% discount rate, and an IRR of 153%.
The fast pace of development is expected to continue — Lidya and Mariana will continue to advance this project rapidly in order to capitalise on what appears to be a highly cash-generative asset. This went from early drill results to PEA in 20 months, and is expected to move to PFS by 3Q17. The PFS is expected to consider the economics of the hanging-wall zinc zone (2.8Mt at 4.0% Zn), which was not considered in the PEA. The study will be conducted concurrently with a 20,000m drill programme planned for this year, including exploration drilling aimed at the discovery of new resources south of the Main Zone in the area of the old Russian mine.
SHANTA GOLD
LON:SHG | £0.11 | US$81m
December Quarterly Production and Operational Update
Shanta Gold has announced that 4QFY16 production from New Luika in Tanzania was 18,897oz (-8% QoQ). Cash costs were US$486/oz (+26% QoQ) and AISC US$747/oz (+20% QoQ). For the full year, production was 87,713oz (+7% YoY) and AISC were US$661/oz (-22%).
At 15,285oz, gold sales for the quarter were 81% of the total produced over the period. This, and a lower gold price received of US$1,187/oz, contributed to cashflow from operations going from US$11m in 3QFY16 to an outflow of US$0.1m in 4QFY16. Capex of US$13m and the receipt of US$5m in cash from a silver streaming deal led to a US$5m increase in net debt QoQ to US$43m (debt of US$58m and cash of US$15m).
Production and cost guidance for FY17 was 80,000–85,000oz at AISC of US$800-850/oz. Production is expected be lower during 1H17, when the ramp-up of higher-grade underground ore is scheduled to commence, than in 2H17.
COMMENT: Annual production was a record for the operation and was ahead of guidance for the year of 82,000-87,000oz. Also, AISC for the year of US$661/oz were lower than guidance of US$690-740/oz, further building the current management team’s growing reputation for delivery. This was reinforced by statements that the all-important, fully-funded transition to underground operations is on budget and on schedule to deliver first ore by mid-year.
With respect to the future; an updated mine plan is planned to be completed by the end of 1Q17, which we expect to increase the planned mine life by two years (to 2023). The project retains considerable local and regional exploration potential, on which the company is now re-focusing its attention.
Encouragingly, the company also stated that its net debt will continue to decline in 2017, despite the completion of the underground development programme in 1H17.
In summary, the outlook for Shanta looks positive.
Production has been stable and costs have fallen — Commercial production was declared at the 100%-owned New Luika gold mine in south-west Tanzania in 2Q13. The company produced 64,000oz in 2013, 8,000oz in 2014 and 82,000oz in 2015; it has now delivered 88,000oz in 2016. Over each of these years, All-in Sustaining Costs (AISC) declined YoY (from US$1,049/oz to US$941/oz, to US$834/oz and to US$661/oz in 2016).
Much of cashflow hitherto has been re-invested in the project — A large proportion of the healthy cashflow generated by New Luika since coming on-stream has been reinvested in the operation. Between 2013 and 2016, Shanta’s operating cashflow totalled US$140m; over the same three-year period, a total of US$115m of this was reinvested in the operations (mainly on retrofitting the plant), resulting in net cashflow before finance over the four years of US$25m. In spite of the planned capex in 2017 of US$33m, much of which will be spent in 1H17, the company has stated that it expects to reduce net debt over the coming year.
New Luika commenced transition to underground in 2016 — Operations currently comprise production from two open pits — Ilunga and Jamhuri (which contained 39,000oz of gold reserves) — and from stockpiles. A further three small deposits (with total reserves of 49,000oz) are planned to be mined by open pit until the end of 2021. Under the current plan (‘Base Case Mine Plan’ of September 2015), production from underground mining operations is planned to commence at the Bauhinia deposit in early 2017, and at the Luika deposit by mid-2017. This plan included total production of 310,000oz from 2016 to early 2022, at average AISC of US$640/oz and pre-production capex of US$38m (excluding working capital). Assuming throughput of 600,000tpa, recoveries of 90% and a head grade of 4.8 g/t, the Base Case Mine Plan forecast average production of 84,000oz pa between 2016 and 2020.
New mine plan to be published in 1Q17 — The company plans to announce a new mine plan in 1Q17 that will update the previous ‘Base Case Mine Plan’ of September 2015. The new plan is expected to include a modest increase in reserves at the Elizabeth Hill deposit, and also the incorporation of a third planned underground operation at the Ilunga deposit. We expect that this will extend the mine life by two years (until mid-2023).
To date, development of the first underground operation at Bauhinia is on time and budget — The decline has now intersected the first ore levels and the first stope is planned to be in production by July 2017, with full production from Bauhinia to be reached by 1Q18. We anticipate first production from Luika underground by the end of 2017 and full production around mid-2018.
Current EV of US$124m — Net debt at the end of 2016 was US$43m, comprising US$15m of cash and US$58m of gross debt. We estimate that this comprised:
• US$3m of promissory notes, repayable April 2017
• US$37m loan from Investec (Libor +4.5%, repayable over four years)
• US$15m of convertible loan notes (maturing April 2019, 13.5% interest, convertible at US$0.47/share (equivalent to £0.38/share))
• US$3m of equipment finance and lease finance
At the company’s current share price and with 583m shares outstanding, the current market cap is equivalent to US$81m. With net debt at end-December of US$43m, the estimated enterprise value is therefore US$124m.