My last piece on Gulf Keystone (LON:GKP) speculated the price would bottom around the 13p level, really for no other reason than the share having a gap in the trading price table at such a level.
Back in January, I was to dislocate a shoulder trying to pat myself on the back.
But what has happened since the price reached my drop target is causing extreme concern. The price target 4.2p. This is now the ‘ultimate bottom’ against GKP.
Often, if a price trades below such a level, it risks drifting into the sub 1p realms where rather a few previously respectable shares lurk.
I've a theory about trends. Basically, when a share experiences a gap in the price movement, a new trend can be viewed as commencing.
If this concept holds water, it appears GKP need only trade above a mid-price of 12.691p currently to move from ‘going down’ to (probably) ‘not going down’.
The word probably is no accident as the share displays a track record for nastily going against the rule book.
However, at time of writing, the price is trading 9% down at 6.2p and has a day low of 5.61p.
While visually my blue line looks close to the current level, the harsh reality is the price needs double.
I am not convinced the agony is over due to movements so far in 2016.
The price calculates as having a logical bottom - one of these levels I expect a bounce from - at 4.7p.
In an ideal world, if a share price has any inherent strength, I tend hope the price will bounce at least 10% above my drop target as generally. This is liable to spark some flamboyant movements.
But, unless it betters that blue line, optimism for the future is somewhat lacking.
Finally, what if GKP does actually manage to close a session above blue?
In such an instance, I'd now be looking for growth fairly rapidly to an initial 21p with secondary, if bettered, at 28p.
Beyond such a point, I shall need review the tea leaves again.
Good luck with this one.
Alistair Strang is founder of www.trendsandtargets.com