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Serco shares up after Jefferies upgrade

Serco gets an upgrade from US broker Jefferies on Tuesday....

Services and outsourcing specialist Serco (LON:SRP) gets a thumbs up from broker Jefferies, today which has upgraded the stock to 'buy' from 'hold'.

The target for the Hampshire-based company is also pumped up to 157p from 145p.

The broker notes that the stock has "materially" underperformed in a rising equity market and has continued to underperform during the recent sell-off.

But it adds: "Management feel more in control of the business and, for the first time in well over a year, we believe risk/reward is now favourable."

"Serco is the only stock in the FTSE250 with no Buy ratings. While that appeals to our contrarian nature, the words of a major outsourcing investor resonate – “we like to be contrarian too but it’s also important to be right", it said.

Shares in Serco added over 4% on Tuesday to around 109p after the upgrade.

Investors should hold on to the shares of B&Q owner Kingfisher (LON:KGF), reckons the same house - Jefferies - today, which reckons the recent turbulence in the equity markets has helped the DIY group.. That's because investors are increasingly keen on what it calls European cyclical recovery plays.

Since the firm's interim management statement in July, UK housing activity appears to have picked up again, spurred on by borrowers rushing to lock-in exceptionally low interest rates, notes the broker.

It targets 350p a share, which is a tad lower than their current price of around 352p.

Elsewhere, heavyweight JP Morgan Cazenove moves mining titan Glencore (LON:GLEN) to 'neutral' from underweight. Citigroup, meanwhile, repeats a 'buy' on the shares but clips the target price back to 190p from 210p.

Shares in the commodities giant advanced on Monday after it revealed plans to slash borrowings. A US$10.2bn initiative to preserve cash and reduce debt will involve raising US$2.5bn of new equity.

Some US$1.6bn is to be saved by scrapping this year’s final dividend, whereas the suspension of next year’s interim dividend is expected to save another US$800mln.

Planned asset sales should secure a further US$2bn and between US$500mln and US$1bn would be cut from capex budgets to the end of 2016.

Deutsche is less impressed with the moves. It rates Glencore a 'hold', targeting 265p

"The reasons for buying into the Glencore story at the time of the IPO centered around capital discipline, the stable nature of the marketing division, the ability to make opportunistic acquisitions and operating tough assets well."

"We now find Glencore is the first of the major miners to raise equity in the current tough pricing environment, the marketing division failing to deliver as indicated in 1H15, poor acquisition outcomes in Caracal and Xstrata and difficult operating outcomes in key assets."

The broker added: "The key question that the management still needs to answer is what the longer term equity investment case for the company is over the other miners."

Elsewhere, Japanese house Nomura remains 'bearish' on the outlook for the oil price with BG (LON:BG.) and Shell (LON:RDSB), its only 'buys'.

For next year, its assuming a macro price of US$ 55 per barrel, with a mid-cycle price rising to USD 70/bbl.

"What concerns us is that there remains great reticence to price appropriately the probability that oil markets led by greater Middle East production (principally Saudi and Iran) remain in a sustained recession. For investors seeking the insurance that an extended low case is largely priced in, we estimate that another 10-15% correction in share prices is required.

It has upgraded BG to 'buy' from 'neutral' and lifted the target to 1230p from 1200p.

"We also close our short in MOL. Our Reduce ratings are led by Statoil, Repsol, OMV and Tullow Oil," it added.

In smaller caps, Newfoundland copper and gold producer Rambler Metals (LON:RMM TSE:RAB) said it achieved most of its production targets in 2015 despite a challenging year as the copper price slumped.

Asa Bridle, at Cantor, noted taht with a difficult fiscal 2015 now passed, the focus for the company and the market should be firmly on the development into the Lower Footwall Zone, and the multiple year extension this should give to the life of the Ming mine.

"Ahead of revisions to our numbers, we reiterate our BUY recommendation and TP of 24p, which draws on a mid-range DCF scenario and financial multiples from RMM’s copper producer peer group," he said in a note to clients.

The same broker repeats a 'buy' rating and target price of 21p on Falcon Oil & Gas (LON:FOG).

Earlier, it revealed its drill programme in Australia had now moved on the second of nine planned wells. The Amungee NW-1 well, in the Beetaloo basin, has now spudded and it aims to follow up the initial success of Kalala S-1 which encountered more than 500 metres of shale gas with a net pay of 150 metres.

Like Kalala, Amungee is targeting the Middle Velkerri shale formation. It will be drilled down to a target depth of 2,700 metres, and the programme is expected to take between 35 and 50 days.

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