The feasibility study from Horizonte Minerals PLC’s (LON:HZM) Araguaia nickel project in Brazil is “a major de-risking event”, according to Shard Capital analyst Phil Swinfen
In a note to clients, Swinfen said: “The FS has tightened up key inputs significantly and demonstrates a robust project with compelling upside.”
IN-DEPTH: Araguaia feasibility study anticipates US$1.6bn in cash flows over life of mine
The analyst has raised his price target for Horizonte's shares to 21p each, up from 15p previously.
He concluded: “We see little to rival Araguaia in the nickel development space and the current market cap remains unchallenging.”
Meanwhile, analysts at Canadian broker Paradigm Capital said the feasibility study “confirms the favourable project economics”.
Released yesterday (Monday), the study shows that over a 28-year mine life, Araguaia will generate US$1.6bn in cash flows, with the potential to go beyond that.
Assuming a nickel price of US$16,800 per tonne, the project has a post-tax net present value (expected cash inflows minus expected cash outflows) of US$740mln and an internal rate of return of 28.1%. Even a base-case nickel price scenario returns an NPV of US$401mln and a 20.1% IRR.
Paradigm has applied a 12% discount rate – pending final permitting and financing outcomes – to its own numbers, but still comes out with an NPV of US$404mln.
The feasibility study worked to a design that allows for future construction of a second rotary kiln electric furnace process line, with the potential to double production capacity from 14,500 tonnes per year nickel up to 29,000 tonnes.
‘Speculative buy’
“Note the current mine plan exploits just 27mln tonnes (Mt) of the ~120Mt resource, providing ample opportunity to expand production capacity and/or extend the project life,” read Paradigm’s note to clients.
Cash costs are expected to be US$3.72 per pound of nickel, or US$8,193 per tonne, making Araguaia “one of the few nickel projects economic at the bottom of the commodity cycle pricing”, the analysts said.
Paradigm has Horizonte as a ‘speculative buy’ with a C$0.15 price target. The dual-listed stock currently trades on the Toronto Stock Exchange C$0.06.
In London, Horizonte shares were down 29.2% to 2.35p in afternoon trade.
-- Recasts with Shard Capital analyst comment, updates share price --