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Numis upgrades Inmarsat’s rating to ‘hold’ from ‘sell' after recent results, but stays cautious

The City broker increased its target price for the FTSE 250-listed firm to 450p from 400p but with the shares changing hands at 431.8p each in mid-morning trading, down 0.2%, it stayed cautious on the stock
Satellite in orbit
But Numis reduced its EBITDA estimates for Inmarsat by 2%, 3%, and 5% respectively for 2018 through to 2021

Numis Securities has upgraded its rating for Inmarsat PLC (LON:ISAT) to ‘hold’ from ‘sell' after raising its price target following the satellite operator’s recent full-year results, but the shares still retreated as it remains cautious on the stock.

The City broker increased its target price for the FTSE 250-listed firm to 450p from 400p, with the shares changing hands at 431.8p each in mid-morning trading, down 0.2%.

READ: Inmarsat shares drop as it cuts dividend and reports decline in full-year earnings

In a note to clients, Numis’s analysts said: “We still lack confidence that ISAT's terminal year capex will be materially below US$500mln pa (per annum) and, linked to this, that sales growth from inflight connectivity (IFC) contracts will earn good ROIs (return on investments) after also including a fair share of the US$1.6bn+ already spent on the global GX (fast broadband) network.”

They added: “Also, we still think that (likely unchanged) consensus estimates for Maritime sales growth are high. Lastly, on our new estimates, ISAT's 60%+ lower DPS will remain uncovered by FCF until FY21.”

The analysts also reduced their group underlying earnings (EBITDA) estimates for Inmarsat by 2%, 3%, and 5% respectively for full-year 2018 through to full-year 2021, mainly because they now forecast slower revenue growth for the group’s Government business, which represented 25% of its EBITDA in full-year 2017.

They noted: “Government is a 'lumpy' business but also ISAT, in effect, said that the 'take' part of its take-or-pay contract with Boeing is not growing fast enough.”

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