Broker Numis Securities has turned positive on Ferguson Plc (LON:FERG), the plumbers’ merchant formerly known as Wolseley.
The name change was in recognition of the dominance of the US part of the business, and that ties in partly with Numis’s reasons for upgrading from ‘hold’ to ‘add’: US tax changes.
READ: Ferguson shares rise on expected US tax benefit, raised price target
Ferguson has announced that the tax benefit of the recent changes in the US tax system will give rise to a reduction in headline group tax rate from 28% to around 25% for the current year and to 21-22% for the full year to end July 2019.
“Plugging 25% and 22% into our estimates … gives rise to a 4% upgrade in EPS this year and 8% next,” Numis said.
The tax benefit will boost cash as well as earnings, and with the group having recently disposed of Stark Group, its Nordics building materials distribution business for €1.03bn, Ferguson has a shed-load of money with which to make acquisitions, buy back shares, or do both.
“We do not adjust for potential share buyback, but the scope for earnings upgrade on tax benefit and cash utilisation would put Ferguson at a material discount to US peers, and this prompts us to raise our target price and recommendation from Hold to Add,” Numis said.
READ: Ferguson sees strong US organic growth lift first-quarter trading profit and revenue
The group has declared that more than half of all its sales come from bid/tendered routes to market, so Numis reckons the focus of any acquisitions is likely to be to develop revenues into complementary end-user markets using the group's existing supply chain.
“We think it unlikely that this will lead to transformational acquisitions, but does ensure ongoing organic market share gain potential and bolt-on acquisitions. We expect this to take place against a favourable North American backdrop with potentially improve price inflation and sustainable volume growth underpinning overall market improvement of 4-5%,” the broker said.
The target price has been increased to 6,150p; the shares currently trade at 5,694p, up 1.9% on the day.