Once the turkey has been consumed, all the presents opened, and the Christmas hangover dissipates, investors will still have little else to focus on next week aside from doing it all again at New Year.
No unseasonal corporate news is scheduled for the two and a half trading days after the Christmas period, although no doubt some unscheduled turkeys or gifts could still arrive, while the economic calendar is also pretty Spartan.
The closely watched Conference Board measure of US consumer confidence will offer some interest, as the gift that keeps giving good news.
The index reading for November rose to a 17 year high, of 129.7, and with the purchasing managers indexes also pointing to robust growth in the US, the story seems to be that the US economy is on the cusp of extremely strong growth which should have continued in December.
The UK economy seems to have been more slowly picking up of late, with purchasing managers indexes suggesting that fourth quarter 2017 will be the best quarter of the year for the UK economy, albeit nothing special by past standards.
The CBI growth indicator due next week is the most timely of all measures of the UK economy overall, however, it disappointed last month.
Although it pointed to an acceleration of growth in manufacturing, it also reported a contraction in distribution and flat growth in the key services sector, so the market will be hoping for an improvement in December.
Into 2018
Dragging the crystal ball forward into the first week of 2018, once the carnage of the New Year celebrations has been cleared, there will still not be very much on the market’s agenda, although the two main events will be of utmost importance.
The latest US jobs report on the first Friday of 2018 should continue to show payrolls across the Atlantic growing strongly, giving the Federal Reserve further pause for thought after December’s US rate hike, particularly with a new broom taking over the central bank’s big chair from February.
Meanwhile, given the crucial significance of the festive season for retailers, the first of a spate of trading updates from the high street will be key to show how the struggling sector is coping as consumer spending remains volatile according to recent surveys.
Clothing stores blue chip Next Plc (LON:NXT), as is traditional, will be first out of the blocks on the Wednesday after New Year, with the story expected to be a familiar one with the high street shops struggling and the Directory (its catalogue and online offering), picking up the slack, experts have said.
The retailer’s chief executive, Lord Wolfson has already spoken about the “changing centre of gravity” in the industry towards the internet.
That threat from the internet to Next et al is unlikely to ease in the foreseeable future, according research by Liberum.
The City broker said online sales are now around £51bn, a figure that will hit almost £70bn by 2022, or almost 20% of total spend.
Significant events expected w/e December 29:
Monday December 25
CHRISTMAS DAY – London Markets closed
Tuesday December 26:
BOXING DAY – London Markets closed
Wednesday December 27:
AGM: Sirius Petroleum PLC (LON:SRSP)
Economic data: UK BBA mortgage lending figures; US consumer confidence; US pending home sales
Thursday December 28:
AGM: Lionsgold Limited (LON:LION)
Ex-dividends: To knock 5.5 points off FTSE 100 index - BT Group plc (LON:BT.A), British American Tobacco plc (LON:BATS), Halma PLC (LON:HLMA)
Economic data: Nationwide UK house prices; CBI UK growth indicator; US weekly jobless claims; US international trade in goods
Friday December 29:
Half-day trading in London (12.30pm close)
AGMs: Anadalas Energy and Power PLC (LON:ADL), Eco (Atlantic) Oil & Gas Limited (LON:ECO), Regency Mines Plc (LON:RGM), Sabien Technology Group Plc (LON:SNT), Secure Property Development & Investment PLC (LOON:SPDI), Trading Emissions PLC (LON:TRE)
Economic data: GfK UK consumer confidence; US Chicago PMI
Significant events expected w/e January 5 2018:
Monday January 1
NEW YEAR’S DAY – London Markets closed
Tuesday January 2:
Economic data: UK manufacturing PMI;US manufacturing PMI
Wednesday January 3:
Trading update: Next Plc (LON:NXT)
Economic data: UK construction PMI; US construction spending
Thursday January 4:
Ex-dividends: Experian PLC (LON:EXPN); Next Plc (LON:NXT)
Economic data: UK services PMI; UK mortgage approvals; US Chicago PMI
Friday January 5:
Economic data: BRC Shop Price index; US non-farm payolls; US unemployment rate