Futura Medical PLC’s (LON:FUM) erectile dysfunction treatment, MED 2002 has the potential to be a US$1bn drug, new research has suggested.
Sales of that magnitude would put the gel into the blockbuster category.
Market research firm Ipsos, interviewed 400 men to asses the gel's potential as an OTC or without prescription product.
Respondents indicated the rapid onset of action, an average of less than five minutes, was the key feature and could command a price premium compared with existing treatments such as Viagra and Cialis, which have a substantially slower onset.
That made it 'highly differentiated' from the rivals.
Ipsos, which a strong record in forecasting drug sales, predicts peak OTC or without prescription annual sales for MED2002 in excess of US$650mln, of which 70% would be in addition to previous estimates of a US$600mln prescription market.
As a result, the estimated peak annual sales of MED2002 in prescription and OTC versions would be more than US$1bn under patent.
Futura has stated previously it intends to develop a prescription product in standard and increased strength dose forms, with the objective of eventually switching the standard dose to an OTC product.
A placebo-controlled Phase III trial later is scheduled to start this year for the standard and increased strength dosage forms of MED2002 in 700 or more patients subject to confirmation from regulatory authorities.
James Barder, Futura’s chief executive, said: "We are delighted that the Ipsos research has confirmed the potential of MED2002 as a US$1 billion+ sales opportunity when taking into account the earlier market research forecasts conducted by Decision Resources Group as a prescription-only product.
He added the results backed up a successful trial last year and was particularly encouraged in the Ipsos research by the respondents' enthusiasm for the product, specifically in terms of its rapid mode of action and safety profile, and by the price premium this could achieve once launched.
Futura added it had also applied in the UK to have its patent extended worldwide until 2038.