Housebuilders were tipped to be winners from the Autumn statement this week by German broker Deutsche Bank, though it does not expect many radical new proposals.
Rather than a general tonic, McCarthy & Stone PLC (LON:MCS) and Berkeley Group Holdings Ltd (LON:BKG) may benefit from some small tweaks believes the broker though it expects the chancellor’s tone to be supportive of the industry with a target of at least 200,000 new builds in England.
As investments, the broker sees housebuilders as too cheap, with the FTSE-leading dividend yields the key attraction.
It is a buyer of the major groups with Bovis Homes (LON:BVS), Barratt Developments (LON:BDEV) and Taylor Wimpey (LON:TW) its top picks.
Stamp duty
No wholesale changes but McCarthy and Berkeley would be the greatest beneficiaries of reductions in tax across the range of prices, though a shift to the seller paying or a capital gains tax would be negative for sheltered housing specialist McCarthy.
Possible changes include a stamp duty holiday at lower prices and an age restricted variation
'At this time there appears little talk of withdrawing the additional 3% stamp duty on buy-to-let but perhaps there may be a bulk purchase exemption' suggests Deutsche.
Help to buy
No more changes here predicts Deutsche Bank. The sector has been vocal in reminding the governement it now accounts for 40% of private reservations and any reduction may affect new starts.
A widening of the range of housing customers from just fist time buyers is possible and that believe private rentals/build to rent may benefit bringing forward new homes of larger sites.
Changes in planning
Possible changes are the relaxation of greenbelt rules, affordable housing regulations, encouragement of alternative construction methods, could influence individual build products.
Land taxes
Discussions of a land tax have risen again in past weeks, but major listed companies hold ups to building are not in their control, planning permission etc.
Changes in VAT
This would involve possible removal of 20% VAT on renovation which help the maintenance market, building distributors.
Shares in McCarthy wre down slightly at 172.4p and Berkeley flat at 2,537p.
The Chancellor's Autumn statement is on Wednesday 23 November.