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The Markets
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The Markets
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Pharma & Biotech

BP and Shell go head-to-head on 'Super Tuesday'

A day for Big Oil - BP and Shell are going to have oil analysts jostling for elbow room

Oil investors better get a decent night's kip on Monday because the side of their brain that analyses company results is going to be working overtime on Tuesday.

"Super Tuesday" as it's been dubbed, sees third quarter numbers from titan BP plc (LON:BP.) and Royal Dutch Shell (LON:RDSB).

Traders will be keen to see how these big oilers are coping with the decline in barrel prices - which have shed around half of where they were when they started the slide in the middle of 2014.

It could well be a real lesson in the corporate art of cloth cutting.

To evade the worst of market expectations?

Ken Odeluga, at spreadbetter City Index, makes the point that both firms are poised to "evade the worst" of market expectations as they become "ever more resourceful" at making savings.

"Cost cuts accounted for about two thirds of the $300bn fall in oil and gas production spending in 2015-16, an analysis of International Energy Agency data shows," says Odeluga.

He notes that neither Shell or its rival BP are expected to increase production significantly this year.

"Yet both have reduced estimated prices at which they expect oil production to break even to between $50-$55 barrels of oil equivalent from around $60 in the first half of 2015.

"And, given that the rate of cost cuts has not yet peaked and new capital expenditure is all but suspended (for example Shell has essentially frozen capex till 2020) breakeven oil prices will fall further," he says.

Average earnings expectations for both oilers, says Odeluga, have risen a few cents apiece over the last month judging by consensus forecasts.

BP’s third quarter EPS (earnings per share) is now seen at 25 cents, about 57.6% lower on the year, whilst Shell is expected to make 44 cents a share, down about 20%

The Share Centre rates both a ‘buy’

Broker The Share Centre rates both oil giants a 'buy'.

For BP, it notes that shares are close to their levels of mid-2014 when oil prices were above $100 a barrel, demonstrating how well restructuring and cost cutting has gone in the current climate.

"The upstream exploration and production businesses should report another quarter of profits," adds the broker.

For Shell, the Share Centre expects an uptick in revenue and profits and says investors will expect an update on the integration of the BG acquisition and whether it should still expect annual cost synergies of $2.5bn per annum.

They will also be looking out for any further divestments (sales), especially in Nigeria and the US as previously indicated. The dividends should remain unchanged.

Significant announcements expected:

Interims: Apax Global Alpha Ltd (LON:APAX), Big Yellow Group PLC (LON:BYG), BP plc (LON:BP.), First Derivatives PLC (LON:FDP), Royal Dutch Shell (LON:RDSB), Shire Plc (LON:SHP)

Finals: Egdon Resources PLC (LON:EDR),

Trading statement: Go-Ahead Group PLC (LON:GOG), Moneysupermarket.com Group PLC (LON:MONY), Standard Chartered PLC (LON:STAN), Weir Group PLC (LON:WEIR).

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