The April Purchasing Managers’ Survey indicates UK manufacturing activity contracted for the first time in three years, and naturally the fear of 'Brexit' has been blamed.
“This is a worrying and disappointing survey,” said Howard Archer, the widely-quoted chief European & UK economist at IHS Economics.
Even his job title implies the UK is not part of Europe.
“While the UK manufacturing sector has been struggling for some time, the April purchasing managers survey can only fuel concern that mounting uncertainties ahead of June’s EU referendum are taking an increasing toll on the economy. Falling demand for, and output of, consumer and investment goods points to increasing caution among consumers in buying durable goods and in businesses in investing,” Archer said.
The index fell to 49.2, and as a value below 50 indicates contraction, we have moved from “boom” to “bust”, if you want to get all 'headliney' about it; either way, with economists expecting a value of 51.2, it was a poor result.
Samuel Tombs, the chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said that demand should begin to strengthen should, as he expects, the UK vote to stay as part of the European Union.
Economists would not be economists, however, without an “on the other hand” caveat, and here is Tombs's: “Still, growth in consumers’ real incomes is slowing this year as inflation picks up, employment growth fades and welfare spending cuts intensify. Meanwhile, sterling likely will appreciate after a 'Bremain' vote, ensuring that UK exports remain uncompetitive. As a result, the manufacturing sector is likely to only crawl out of recession later this year.”
It's the first trading day of May in the UK, so top marks to Mike van Dulken, head of research at trading platform Accendo Markets, for observing that the “sell in May and go away” adage is working so far.
Could it be time to switch to gold and invest in that strong box that you can bury in the back garden?
Online precious metals trading platform Bullion Vault would like you to think so.
“The continued rebound in gold and silver prices in 2016 is attracting the largest number of new private investors to precious metals since the price crash of spring 2013,” it announced on Tuesday.
On the other hand (as an economist would say), with the US dollar “nudging 14-month highs during April”, existing holders have also been taking the opportunity to bank profits.
On the equities front, private investors look to be taking a keen interest in the activities of Armadale Capital PLC (LON:ACP), the investment company focused on natural resource projects in Africa.
The company said it is to continue exploration at its 80-owned Mpokoto project in the Democratic Republic of Congo with an auger drilling campaign.
“There is increasing interest in near term gold projects in particular as the gold price continues to rise,” suggested Peter Marks, chairman of Armadale.
I expect pawnbrokers such as H&T GROUP PLC (LON:HAT) will be pleased to hear that, also; they seemed to do rather well the last time precious metal prices frothed up.
“Update on pilot programme” is the title of the stock market announcement from Sabien Technology Group Plc (LON:SNT), raising hopes that the energy efficiency technology company had somehow branched out into powering jet aircraft, but, of course, it is “pilot” as in trial, not “pilot” as in “air jockey”.
At the time of its interim results it had agreements for pilot schemes with 30 clients, of which 18 were awaiting survey and 12 were in measurement. As of today, 35 clients have signed up for pilots in the 2015-6 heating season, and of these 10 have been completed with reports submitted to clients, 21 are in measurement, two are awaiting installation and two are being surveyed.
The board estimates that 32 UK pilots will be completed this financial year with a further three completed after the group's year end.
The news sent the boiler optimisation firm's shares 5% higher.
Another tech company getting the month off to a flying start is Trakm8 (LON:TRAK), the telematics and data provider.
It has been awarded an initial four year contract by ScottishPower to supply fleet tracking and driver behaviour solutions for 1,608 vehicles.
Educational software developer Tribal Group plc (LON:TRB) hopped over the fence from the main market to Aim today, and seems to be settling in nicely in its new home, with the shares up 0.6% in a falling market.