Some investors may be hoping that news on Monday that Saudi Arabia is poised to take over the largest oil refinery in the US will mean more control of supply and a faster return to lofty energy prices. Or will it just lead to painful reorganisation of the fuels industry?
There is no doubt that at some point oil prices will rise. Supply and demand dictates that. But rather than a quick fix to depressed oil prices, languishing at $40 a barrel and a third of where they were in 2011 - news that Saudi Aramco, the state oil company of OPEC's most powerful nation, plans to take control of Port Arthur, the Texan refinery, could actually lead to comparisons with the Trojan Horse of Greek mythology.
The Mexican Gulf Coast facility is the largest refinery in the US, capable of processing 600,000 barrels of oil a day. It is to the US oil industry what Pearl Harbour was to the United States military machine in 1941. And no one in the United States wants history to repeat itself.
After all, Port Arthur has great strategic value to the world's biggest economy, especially given the American oil boom that eased US dependency on imported foreign oil.
Ironically, the corporate divorce of a joint venture between Saudi Aramco and Royal Dutch Shell means that the former stands to take over full control of Port Arthur before long and change the ownership of this supply balance.
Saudi Aramco already owns half of the Port Arthur refinery along with Royal Dutch Shell through a joint venture called Motiva Enterprises. But the two oil titans have had a fractious relationship for many years. Last week they released a letter of intent to break up Motiva.
Shell stands to gain control of two Motiva refineries in Louisiana and nine distribution terminals. Saudi Aramco would get Port Arthur as well as 26 distribution terminals and the licence to the Shell brand for gasoline and diesel sales in Texas.
There is talk that before long Saudi Aramco will be privatised. But that will not douse the rumours of some investors that whatever happens to the entity it will continue to report to the Saudi government, even at arm's length.
Could this mean that Saudi Arabia will pump even more Middle Eastern oil, not less? And in the process further replace high cost US producers and lead to ongoing depressed oil prices for years to come?
There is little doubt that the Saudis would likely bring more of their own crude oil into the US market for refining and selling in the North American market.
That could see the limping US oil industry damaged further than it has been already with depressed oil prices.
The Port Arthur deal can only add to the complex energy relationship between the Washington and Riyadh.
There is evidence that the US is growing in its dependency on Saudi oil. The US imported 1.2mln barrels of Saudi oil per day, according to US Energy Information Administration data for February. That's nearly twice as much as the year before.
Meanwhile, over the past decade US oil output nearly doubled, leading to today's enormous supply glut.
The response of OPEC, led by the Saudis, has been a standoff, refusing to cut output and prevent prices from crashing. So prices have crashed.
If unchecked, the future oil industry in the US could be dominated by Saudi crude oil distributed via Port Arthur. Moreover, lawmakers in Washington may be powerless to prevent such an evolution of the industry. That's business after all.
Risers & Fallers on Wall Street today.
RISERS
Nike (NYSE:NKE) shares printed 2.75% higher to $64.72, after broker JPMorgan Chase added the the sportswear giant's stock to its Analyst Focus list, saying concerns about inventory and gross margin issues are largely unwarranted.
WL Ross Holding (NASDAQ:WLRH) shares gained 0.7% to $10.06 after the investment firm controlled by billionaire Wilbur Ross said it will acquire a 65% stake in chemical and plastics distributor Nexeo Solutions for $1.6bn in cash, stock, and assumed debt.
Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) shares advanced 0.4% to $111.85 after the social network's Chief Executive Officer Mark Zuckerberg met with Chinese officials at the weekend, as part of a design to open up the second-largest economy for the social network.
FALLERS
Nordstrom (NYSE:JWN) shares dropped by 1.5% to $57.57 after the retailer was downgraded to "neutral" from "overweight" at Piper Jaffray. The firm thinks Nordstrom may be overvalued in the near term after a 19% this year.
Monsanto (NYSE:MON) shares fell by 1.8% to $91.31 after the chemical maker said it is exploring possible deals with two rivals, BASF and Bayer, according to Bloomberg.