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Pharma & Biotech

Sky's interims divide analyst opinion..

Interim results from broadcast and telecoms giant Sky, due out tomorrow, appear to split analyst opinion.

Interim results from broadcast and telecoms giant Sky (LON:SKY), due out tomorrow, appear to split analyst opinion.

Haitong Research rates the shares a 'sell', citing a now more challenging UK communications landscape and expensive costs to gain rights to the Bundesliga, while City firm Numis recommends investors 'add' the shares.

It says the share offers defensive growth in today's difficult markets.

Certainly traders will be looking to hear more on forward strategy in the light of increasing competition.

It will soon be up against Vodafone (LON:VOD) in the mobile market, while BT (LON:BT.A) looks set to acquire EE and begin selling ever popualr telecoms bundle packages in more than 600 retail stores.

Haitong said in a note: "We believe SKY’s future in UK communications will be much more challenging than its past.

"With or without regulatory help (depending on whether the Three/O2 deal happens or not), SKY’s mobile wholesale costs are unlikely to be as low relative to average retail prices as BT’s regulated charge for an unbundled fixed line is relative to the total retail price of a fixed line rental + voice + broadband service," said analyst John Karidis.

He notes the group also does not own a big chain of own retail shops, unlike each of Britain’s mobile network operators.

Haitong also believes Bundesliga costs will rise much more than 40% that consensus expects, and this will undermine Sky's 20% EPS (earings per share) growth most analysts forecast for full year 2018.

"Rights for the four years to FY21 are to be auctioned by this summer. Currently SKY owns all live rights for distribution over all platforms. Also the average cost of these rights is currently c.1/5th the price of equivalent rights to English Premier League football from FY17.

"Based on the UK experience, we think premium football content is worth more to companies that can also cross-sell fixed line and mobile services," noted Karidis.

Meanwhile, on tomorrow's numbers, broker Numis says it forecasts another good period of customer growth for Sky, following on from robust first quarter numbers in October, when the group reported the strongest growth in the UK for four years.

For the first half, it forecasts, revenues of £5,664mln with growth curtailed to some extent by foreign exchange headwinds and expects EBITA of £731mln, PBT (pre-tax profit) of £620mln (1H15 £585m) and EPS (earnings per share) of 28.5p (prior year 26.9p, consensus 29.1p).

Numis analyst Paul Richards targets 1250p for the shares, against a current price of 1,044p.

Meanwhile, Liberum says it expects UK net consumer additions of 240,000 - a noticeable increase on last year's Q2 figure as Sky benefits from its marketing push, the fallout from TalkTalk's data breach last year and the continued success of NowTV.

"However, our fundamental Sell case remains the same - that high cost inflation in programming and the need to invest in new products and marketing, and a lack of ability to pass this onto consumers will see a continuation of the pattern at Sky of steady and continued earnings downgrades. It targets 530p for the shares.

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