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The Markets
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Mining

Short-sellers target Glencore but commodity demand may be stabilising - report

Plunging commodity prices have hit miners and suppliers such as JCB

Miners are still taking a hit from falling commodity prices and suppliers are cutting jobs, but there may be light at the end of the tunnel, according to a study.

Short-sellers are targeting companies such as Glencore (LON:GLEN) as prices of metals such as copper, iron ore and zinc continue to plummet, a report by economic research group Markit said.

Short-selling interest in Glencore currently stands at 3% of shares outstanding on loan, the highest level in more than two years.

Industry supplier JCB on Wednesday blamed the price declines and plunging oil prices for a decision to cut up to 290 jobs at its British factories.

It said a rapid deterioration in world construction equipment markets had sparked a big fall in machine orders from customers.

JCB chief executive Graeme Macdonald said: "As the global economy shows no sign of improving, the short-term outlook remains very challenging."

The price of zinc fell to five-year lows in October after rising 10%. This was after Glencore, the metal's biggest miner, vowed to cut production by a third to support prices.

Glencore has been the worst performing stock in the FTSE 100 Index in the year to date, with a 59% drop, but investors gave the shares a boost on Wednesday after Glencore said suspending the 2015 final dividend and 2016 interim dividend would save it US$2.4bn.

It also confirmed full-year earnings guidance for its trading arm of between US$2.5bn-US$2.6bn.

Markit noted that Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data out of Beijing has showed a slowing rate of deterioration in China that may have lifted stocks in October.

Markit analyst Relte Stephen Schutte said: "PMI data released this week indicates that weaker demand emanating out of China may be stabilising.

"Data shows that the rate of deterioration in Chinese manufacturing businesses slowed during October with the largest increase in PMI data seen in 16 months."

That coincided with an equity markets rally during October as the State Street SPDR S&P 500 exchange traded fund (ETF) rose 8.2% and the iShares Core FTSE 100 ETF increased by 4.7%.

In the year to date, however, miners have dragged down the performance of the FTSE 100 with the worst performing shares in the year to date being Glencore and rival miners Anglo American (LON:AAL) and Antofagasta (LON:ANTO).

Anglo American shares rallied by 22% over the same period but have since given back more than half of these gains.

Short interest in AAL breached financial crisis levels with 5% of shares outstanding on loan and 3.9% at the moment. Shares are down 52% in the year to date.

With 3.7% of shares outstanding on loan, copper miner Antofagasta also rallied over 20%, and then subsequently receded 10%.

Meanwhile in the US, under-performers in the S&P 500 have largely been led by energy players such as Consol Energy, Chesapeake Energy and sector outlier Keurig Green Mountain in third position.

Staffordshire-based JCB said its market in Russia dropped by 70% in the first six months of the year, while demand in Brazil fell by 36% and in China by 47%.

Parts of Europe are also struggling, with France down by 26%. Strong growth in the UK and North America has softened due to a fall in market confidence over the summer, which JCB blamed on low oil and commodity prices in countries which depend on the resources to drive economic growth.

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