Brent crude passed $100 a barrel on Wednesday for the first time since July, as fresh strikes between the United States and Iran stoked fears of wider disruption to Middle East energy supplies.
The international benchmark traded as high as $100.44, up more than 2.5% on the day, while West Texas Intermediate rose to $94.92.
The move extends a run that has taken Brent up more than 5% over the past five trading days and over 8% so far in September.
Goldman Sachs said intensifying attacks on shipping in the region were raising the probability that Brent could exceed $120 a barrel, a level not touched since April.
The latest leg higher follows attacks by Iran-aligned Houthi militants on energy facilities in southern Saudi Arabia at the weekend, which wounded more than 70 people and forced a temporary halt to operations at several sites, including the Jazan refinery.
Washington has maintained a naval blockade aimed at Iranian oil exports, which have fallen to zero so far this month, according to tanker-tracking data from Petro-Logistics.
UBS said in a note published Tuesday that oil-on-water inventories had fallen by 150 million barrels over the past two months, a sign the market remains under-supplied, and raised its year-end Brent forecast to $95 a barrel from $85 previously.
The bank's March 2027 forecast rises to $90 a barrel, from $80, while its June 2027 forecast moves to $85 from $80, though UBS said its outlook remains below current spot pricing given the steep backwardation of the futures curve.
UBS pointed to a partial offset from a recovery in Chinese demand, with imports climbing to almost 9 million barrels a day in August from a June low of 7.15 million barrels a day, still short of February's 12.6 million.
The bank flagged that its forecasts carry elevated uncertainty, tied to the unpredictable path of the Middle East conflict and the pace of any recovery in Gulf output.
Diesel prices in the United States have also climbed to record levels this year, according to AAA data, adding to concerns over the economic impact of the latest spike in energy costs.
