Panmure Liberum argues that UK leisure remains a story of selective recovery, with pubs benefiting from the World Cup and warm weather while restaurant trading remains negative and travel indicators continue to stabilise rather than recover.
The firm notes that July delivered the strongest month of 2026 for managed hospitality, with pub like-for-like sales up 4.2%, but restaurant sales fell 1% and bars declined 5%, leaving overall growth below inflation.
Matchday trading was strong, with England’s semi-final against Argentina driving pub and bar card spending 78% above a typical Wednesday.
Heineken’s managed-operator sample recorded drink sales more than 200% higher year on year.
Pubs sold around 30 million additional pints during the tournament, generating approximately £150 million in additional sales, while drinks sales fell 1.6%, 2.1% and 0.9% year on year in the three weeks after the final.
The analyst firm says pub demand is increasingly occasion-led, with consumers spending heavily around compelling events but remaining cautious otherwise, making value and differentiated formats critical for sustained traffic.
Operators with clear strategies are favoured, with JD Wetherspoon PLC (LSE:JDW) competing on price, Young’s and Fuller Smith & Turner PLC;s (AIM:FSTA )focusing on premiumisation, and Marston’s PLC (LSE:MARS) investing in sports-led formats to create additional occasions and drive visits.
Panmure Liberum also sees UK low-cost gyms as a structural growth category, with gym penetration at about 17%, compared with 23.1% in the US.
Value chains account for around 30% of members, up from about 2% in 2010.
The Gym Group’s 2026 Gen Z Fitness Pulse shows that 42% of Gen Z respondents ranked health and fitness memberships or apps as their largest discretionary-spending priority.
About 72%, on the other hand, said access to a gym was important when deciding where to live.
Travel indicators remain weak but are stabilising, with Barclaycard data showing spending down just 0.3% in July compared with a 5.8% decline in May.
Spending on hotels, resorts and accommodation, however, rose 2.6% and airline spending fell 6.0%.
The firm says conditions have improved since spring, but the recovery remains narrow, favouring operators with clear self-help, resilient demand, pricing power and scope to convert sales growth into margins and cash flow.
Panmure Liberum stresses that hospitality like-for-like sales growth of 1.4% remained below headline inflation of 2.9%, meaning the sector has not returned to real like-for-like growth.
The investment firm says London continues to outperform the rest of the country, but eating-out inflation remains around 4%, driven by higher labour and property costs, making cost mitigation as important as headline sales growth.
