MongoDB Inc (NASDAQ:MDB) heads into its second-quarter earnings report Tuesday with investors watching for signs that red-hot demand from AI-native customers is starting to show up in the numbers.
The compay’s cloud-hosted Atlas segment is on track for a fifth straight quarter of 29-30% growth, analysts at UBS noted.
UBS said MongoDB guided to 26% Atlas growth for the quarter, implying $41 million in sequential dollar adds compared with $43 million a year earlier, a guide the firm called conservative.
Based on beats of roughly 1.5 and 2.5 percentage points in the prior two quarters, UBS said many investors expect a similar beat, landing Atlas growth in the 29-30% range. The firm is modeling total revenue growth of 28%, a 3-point beat, with non-Atlas revenue guided to 20% growth on the timing of multi-year deal renewals.
Looking ahead to the following quarter, UBS said Atlas would need $40-45 million in sequential dollar adds to sustain a sixth straight quarter of 29-30% growth, up from $31 million a year earlier. The firm expects MongoDB to guide conservatively at around 25% before a typical beat lands growth back near 29%. UBS models full-year revenue growth of 24%, above MongoDB's own 20% guidance and ahead of what it sees as consensus expectations near 22%.
MongoDB raised its full-year operating income guidance by $26 million, above its first-quarter beat, implying an operating margin of 20%, up 150 basis points year over year. UBS said further margin upside looks less likely this year as the company continues investing in AI product capabilities, go-to-market headcount, and expansion in Japan and the US federal vertical.
UBS also pointed to MongoDB's growing ties with AI-native companies, including references to Anthropic and signals suggesting OpenAI as a customer, alongside smaller AI-native names such as Factory, Fireworks, ElevenLabs and Mercor. Still, the firm said it remains unclear how large these relationships are, noting customer checks showed stable spending growth but no clear evidence yet of material AI-driven demand for MongoDB specifically.