Josh Gilbert, lead analyst for APAC at eToro Group Ltd (Unlisted (US):ETRO), shares his three things to watch in Australia in the coming days.
Shein IPO
Shein’s IPO is scheduled to begin trading on Tuesday, and few IPOs arrive with this level of global recognition. It has become one of the world's best-known online fashion brands, particularly among younger shoppers. It will be hoping it is third-time lucky after failed attempts to list in New York and London. Hong Kong finally gives the fast-fashion giant a route to public markets when it begins trading this week. The near US$26 billion (A$36.30 billion) valuation is around 70% below its 2022 private-market peak, with slowing growth, higher tariffs and tighter regulation taking the shine off the story.
Its on-demand supply chain and ultra-low prices helped generate US$42 billion in revenue last year, but growth slowed from 21% to 8%, while first-quarter sales rose just 1% and underlying profit fell more than 40%. Higher US import costs are squeezing the bottom line, while new European customs charges are already hitting its largest market. Daily active users there have fallen around 45% since the EU scrapped its duty exemption on small parcels, and rival Temu has seen a similar drop, meaning things are getting tough.
The products themselves are more profitable than ever, with gross margins rising from 60% to around 68% in two years. The squeeze is happening after the sale, through freight and duties. That is why the next phase of growth runs through the supply chain as much as the label. It started with opening the platform to third-party sellers, giving them access to 281 million active customers without Shein owning the inventory, and now extending to buying smaller fashion brands and plugging them into the same manufacturing network.
With almost US$15 billion in cash and short-term investments, Shein has plenty of firepower to keep going. The pitch to investors is that Shein is no longer just selling cheap clothes, it is selling access to the manufacturing powerhouse behind them.
AU GDP
This Wednesday's June quarter National Accounts will tell us whether the soft patch that opened 2026 is stabilising or deepening. Consensus is for growth of around 0.5% for the quarter and close to 1.9% over the year, a step up from the 0.3% we saw in Q1. ‘Consensus’ is doing some heavy lifting this time around; estimates are all over the place and the range is much wider than we usually see going into a print.
While it might seem like you’re spending less day-to-day, household spending has actually risen for three months straight now and jumped 1.1% in July, its strongest annual pace in about two years. Granted, some of that effect is households paying more for the same basket, rather than buying more.
With a fourth rate rise for the year back on the table and inflation still throwing unpredictability into the arena, it’s not so surprising to see such a spread of calls. That potential rise could come as soon as September, given the RBA’s target metric, trimmed mean, stays nailed to the top of the band at 3.6%.
Basically, a strong print would harden hike speculation and support an Australian dollar already near a three-month high at around US$0.72. A soft or negative read gives bonds some relief, but with core inflation this sticky, the dovish read only goes so far.
Broadcom earnings
Broadcom has become one of the AI boom’s biggest winners, but as we’ve come to understand with the AI trade in 2026, simply delivering a big quarter is no longer enough. Last time out, Broadcom posted record AI revenue, and its shares still fell 12.6%, after the Q3 AI forecast missed elevated expectations and management left its longer-term target unchanged. Supply constraints, rather than demand, were blamed, so investors will want evidence that Broadcom can convert its huge order book into revenue more quickly.
This week, revenue is expected to rise 85% to US$29.4 billion, with adjusted earnings nearly doubling to US$3.23 a share. Nvidia’s result last week showed that AI infrastructure demand remains extraordinary, and if demand is not the problem, investors will expect that strength to flow through to a major guidance upgrade. Management is currently targeting more than US$100 billion in AI semiconductor revenue next year when the market wants something closer to US$120 billion, and with bookings running at almost three times shipments last quarter, another conservative target won't cut it with shareholders.
The other issue is Google. Its new chip agreement with Marvell Technology has raised concerns that Broadcom could lose share at its biggest custom silicon customer, so Broadcom needs to show that Google is adding a supplier rather than swapping one out. A strong quarter is already expected, so the harder job is convincing investors that US$100 billion is the floor for its AI business, not the ceiling.