Shares of Apnimed rose 8% Tuesday after BofA Securities initiated coverage of the company with a Buy rating and a $41 price target.
The rating is based on a risk-adjusted discounted cash flow analysis of Oxnimbi (AD109), Apnimed's sole asset and an oral therapy for obstructive sleep apnea (OSA).
BofA's thesis centers on three factors: a differentiated mechanism that targets the neuromuscular dysfunction underlying OSA, as opposed to positive airway pressure (PAP) therapy and obesity-directed GLP-1 drugs; positive Phase 3 data showing 34-44% reductions in the apnea-hypopnea index (AHI), which the firm said support a high probability of approval and potentially broad labeling across OSA severity; and a large initial market opportunity among roughly 10.5 million diagnosed but untreated patients.
The bank modeled nominal and risk-adjusted peak US sales of approximately $2 billion and $1.7 billion, respectively.
Oxnimbi combines aroxybutynin and atomoxetine in a once-daily oral therapy designed to improve upper-airway muscle activity during sleep. If approved, BofA said it would offer a pharmacologic alternative for patients unable or unwilling to use PAP therapy, which remains highly effective but is limited by chronic adherence challenges.
Unlike Eli Lilly's Zepbound, which is approved for moderate-to-severe OSA in adults with obesity, Oxnimbi was studied across mild-to-severe OSA and could address much of the population outside the current Zepbound label, according to the note.
Both Phase 3 studies met their primary AHI endpoints and showed meaningful reductions in hypoxic burden, the analysts noted.
The analysts pointed to two key catalysts ahead: FDA approval and labeling in the first quarter of 2027, which they described as a typical value-step-up event for a single-product biotech, and the Oxnimbi launch itself, where physician feedback supports early uptake given the large addressable patient population and the drug's positioning as an oral option for patients unwilling or unable to use PAP.