AppLovin Corp (NASDAQ:APP) faces a mostly negative investor mood heading into the back half of the year, with few able to make a clear bullish case, according to a new Jefferies note summarizing recent investor conversations and a debate the firm hosted on the stock.
Jefferies said questions about whether AppLovin could follow a trajectory similar to The Trade Desk's downturn represent the most negative line of questioning the firm has received in its years covering the company.
Jefferies believe the two businesses don't overlap much. The Trade Desk relies more on large agencies and Fortune 100 advertisers moving budgets to rivals like Amazon DSP and Google DV360, while AppLovin is built around performance marketing tied to measurable results rather than fixed brand spending.
On the bull side, investors point to AppLovin's potential to grow its e-commerce business by expanding its sales team and building out agency partnerships, which could bring more large, sophisticated direct-to-consumer brands onto the platform. Bulls also argue that continued growth in in-app advertising works in AppLovin's favor even if the broader mobile gaming market slows, so long as the company keeps improving its ad targeting.
Bears counter that a slowing mobile games market limits how much upside is left. Third-party data pointing to declining install volumes and rising cost-per-install figures suggests some game studios are pulling back spending, they argue, which would put more weight on take-rate expansion and e-commerce growth to sustain results. Both of those areas have seen expectations soften over the past quarter.
Bears also flagged take-rate compression in the second quarter, tied to double-digit percentage growth in publisher revenue disclosures from AppLovin's MAX ad exchange. Rising competition from Unity, Meta and Liftoff is pressuring AppLovin's 35-40% take rate. Jefferies can't say how much stems from competition versus stalled improvement in AppLovin's AXON ad model.
Jefferies estimates the addressable market for mobile games, excluding China, at about $105 billion for 2026 across in-app purchases, direct-to-consumer spending and in-app advertising, up in the mid-single digits year over year.