A growing pool of highly isolated young people risks shrinking the occasions where alcohol has a place, according to Jefferies, the US investment bank.
In a note published on Monday, analyst Edward Mundy argued that the collapse in face-to-face contact among the least sociable young Americans represents a fresh, structural headwind for drinks companies.
He pointed to figures from the American Time Use Survey, highlighted in a weekend Financial Times article, showing that on an average day in 2023 one in ten Americans aged 23 to 29 spent zero minutes interacting in person with another person.
The data tells a more nuanced story than the familiar claim that Gen Z is simply drinking less.
A social product losing social occasions
Mundy said the most socially connected young Americans have largely recovered from the pandemic, while the least connected have seen their social contact fall towards zero.
That matters because alcohol has always been a social product.
Humans have fermented drinks since the Stone Age, the analyst noted, and for most consumers alcohol is about conviviality, bonding and shared experiences rather than physical need.
If a larger cohort rarely meets friends, visits bars or attends parties, the industry loses a route to recruit new drinkers into traditional occasions.
The observation fits one of the 27 headwinds Jefferies set out in its earlier "Future of Alcohol" series, which argued that digital entertainment such as online gaming, gambling, esports and virtual social platforms is steadily taking share from leisure activities that once featured alcohol.
Asahi's chief executive has previously blamed rising screen time, rather than health concerns, for the 1% fall in global alcohol volumes in 2023.
Signs of a Gen Z comeback
Not all the signals are negative, however. Mundy said there were early signs that Gen Z is returning to the party.
A July 2026 report from drinks data firm IWSR found that 74% of Gen Z had consumed alcohol in the previous six months, up from 66% three years earlier and close to the overall adult rate of 76%.
Participation has risen from 66% to 74% in the UK, from 60% to 80% in India, and from 68% to 71% in the US, suggesting fears of a Gen Z abstention crisis are overdone.
Preference for beer
Jefferies argued the wider debate about alcohol is somewhat academic until volumes recover, and its preference remains firmly with beer.
Part of the sector's re-rating in 2026 reflects an emerging-market recovery, where volumes have rebounded.
The bank sees a favourable outlook for global beer, driven by emerging markets with young populations, urbanisation and rising disposable incomes.
Beer stocks, Mundy said, offer attractive valuations and an improving growth outlook, while the US spirits industry is still searching for a floor.
