Gamblers on Polymarket, the cryptocurrency-based prediction market, now think OpenAI is unlikely to release its next major artificial intelligence model, Astra, before October.
Traders on the platform put the chance of a public launch by 31 August at just 18%, a figure that has slipped 12 points.
The odds lengthen the further out the calendar runs, rising to 60% for a release by 15 September, 78% by the end of that month and 87% by 31 October.
The wagering reflects a turbulent fortnight for what OpenAI has billed as its "next major model."
OpenAI, the San Francisco company behind ChatGPT, first disclosed Astra on 1 August, tucking the reveal inside a research post about mathematics rather than a product launch.
The company said an internal version of the model had solved ten problems in mathematics and theoretical computer science that specialists had failed to crack for at least a decade.
Six days later OpenAI said it was pausing some internal work on Astra because its cyber capabilities were potentially too dangerous.
The company said preliminary tests showed the system might be able to autonomously identify and exploit zero-day vulnerabilities in hardened real-world systems, the first time any of its models had approached the "critical" tier of its internal risk framework.
A White House official said OpenAI had voluntarily informed the administration of its plans to delay the release.
Chief executive Sam Altman has insisted the firm still intends to release Astra widely, arguing it is a poor strategy to reserve powerful models for a select few.
OpenAI has not set a public release date, and it has not confirmed whether the model will ship as GPT-6, as a GPT-5 update or under the Astra name.
No waitlist or early-access programme has opened.
