BRAZILIAN RARE EARTHS LTD (ASX:BRE) has replaced its previous Rocha da Rocha production and economic case with a standalone Monte Alto and Camaçari development scenario, outlining an after-tax net present value (NPV8) of US$6 billion, 90% internal rate of return and 1.1-year payback period.
The revised Scoping Study excludes the Sulista Project entirely after BRE withdrew the production target and financial forecasts released on August 13 because the proportion of Inferred Mineral Resources scheduled in years 9-14 did not provide a reasonable basis for those forward-looking statements. The underlying Monte Alto and Sulista mineral resource estimates remain unchanged.
The new case is based solely on the Monte Alto Mineral Resource feeding a proposed refinery at the Camaçari Petrochemical Complex and maintains a targeted first-production date of 2031.
Revised study highlights
Under the base case, BRE estimates total capital expenditure to first production of US$969 million and average annual revenue of about US$1.69 billion over the 9-year mine life.
The study forecasts after-tax NPV8 of US$6 billion, an after-tax IRR of 90%, average annual operating free cash flow of around US$1.2 billion and an NPV-to-capital ratio of 6.2 times. The project is also positioned in the first quartile of Benchmark Mineral Intelligence's global rare earth cost curve at around US$21 per kilogram of NdPr equivalent.
BRE's revised production target is underpinned by about 75% Indicated and 25% Inferred Mineral Resources. The company said Indicated material accounts for about 93% of scheduled processing feed in year 1 and around 87% over the first 5 years, meaning the forecast 1.1-year payback falls within a predominantly Indicated resource period.
The Scoping Study remains preliminary, with an intended accuracy of approximately ±40%, and does not support an Ore Reserve. BRE estimates around US$969 million of funding would be required to deliver the development scenario, with no project financing yet secured.
Monte Alto production profile
Monte Alto hosts a 3.40-million-tonne primary and residual Mineral Resource grading 11.3% total rare earth oxides (TREO), comprising 2.51 million tonnes Indicated at 12.7% TREO and 0.89 million tonnes Inferred at 7.1% TREO.
The revised development is forecast to produce an average of 6,351 tonnes per annum of separated neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) oxide and 2,502 tonnes per annum of heavy rare earth concentrate during its first 5 years of run-rate production.
The heavy rare earth product is expected to contain about 274 tonnes per annum of dysprosium and terbium, alongside 360 tonnes of gadolinium and 1,060 tonnes of yttrium.
Monte Alto is also forecast to produce an average 466 tonnes per annum of U3O8 over the life of mine, although no uranium revenue has been included in the study economics. Potential scandium, niobium and tantalum value has similarly been excluded.
Monte Alto and Camaçari project
The project uses a hub-and-spoke development model, with mining, crushing, screening and sensor-based ore sorting undertaken at Monte Alto before upgraded material is transported about 260 kilometres to Camaçari for downstream processing.
The proposed refinery would be within the established Camaçari industrial complex, providing access to utilities, chemical feedstocks, transport infrastructure and an experienced industrial workforce.
BRE plans to use low-temperature hydrometallurgical processing and rare earth separation to produce separated NdPr oxide and a mixed heavy rare earth concentrate. Its partnership with Carester also provides technical support for downstream separation and a binding 10-year European offtake pathway for the heavy rare earth product.
Sulista remains outside the revised production target but continues to form part of BRE's longer-term development strategy, subject to further resource conversion and technical work.
Next steps
BRE has completed 39 new holes totalling 8,300 metres at Monte Alto since the February 2026 Mineral Resource cut-off and extended another 10 holes to test mineralisation to the east and south.
Final assays from this work are expected in September 2026, followed by an updated Monte Alto Mineral Resource Estimate by the end of 2026.
The company is also progressing Sulista drilling, with an updated Sulista Mineral Resource targeted for the end of 2026.
BRE intends to move into further feasibility studies and permitting toward its targeted 2031 production start, while progressing discussions with potential strategic partners ahead of a targeted final investment decision in mid-2029.
An earlier direct-shipping concentrate development is also being assessed. BRE said this pathway could require indicative upfront capital of around US$91 million and, subject to feasibility work, approvals and permitting, could potentially support first concentrate sales as early as 2030.
About Brazilian Rare Earths
Brazilian Rare Earths is developing the Rocha da Rocha critical minerals province in Bahia, Brazil, with the relevant Monte Alto tenements forming part of project holdings in which BRE holds, or has contracted to acquire, a 100% interest through its wholly owned Brazilian subsidiaries.
The company's development strategy centres on high-grade rare earth and critical mineral feed from Monte Alto and other targets within the province, coupled with centralised downstream processing at Camaçari. The broader exploration portfolio includes Sulista, Pelé and other prospects across the Rocha da Rocha province.