Prediction market punters have all but written off a Google Gemini Pro release this week, with odds on a launch by 14 August collapsing 46 percentage points to 4%.
The Polymarket contract, which has drawn just under $1 million in volume, resolves yes only if Google makes its next Pro-tier model available to the general public.
Odds on a release by 21 August have fallen 42 points to 11%.
Even the 31 August contract, the most heavily traded of the three at roughly $247,000, sits at 44%.
A companion market asking whether no new Gemini Pro model arrives within the window is priced at 57%.
The scepticism reflects a launch that has slipped repeatedly.
Google announced the Gemini 3.5 family at its I/O developer conference on 19 May, shipping the cheaper Flash version the same day and promising the Pro model the following month.
June passed, then July, when Google released three further Gemini models without the flagship.
Bloomberg has reported internal delays as the model struggled to hit performance targets.
The most advanced Pro model Google currently offers is Gemini 3.1 Pro, dating from February, and the DeepMind product page still carries a "coming soon" badge for its successor.
That gap matters commercially, because Pro models are the ones aimed at complex reasoning and coding work where OpenAI and Anthropic have shipped repeatedly this year.
There is a technical wrinkle traders are watching. Gemini 3.1 Pro remains formally in preview, and the market rules suggest that promoting an existing preview model to general availability could count as a release, even without new capability.
One holder argued in the market's comment thread that removing the preview label alone would be enough to settle the contract.
A separate market on whether Gemini 4.0 lands by 30 September is priced at 23%.