Take-Two Interactive Software Inc (NASDAQ:TTWO) remains a top pick at Wedbush, which reiterated its ‘Outperform’ rating and $300 price target following the video game publisher’s fiscal first quarter results, with the firm highlighting the upcoming launch of Grand Theft Auto VI and the company’s growing recurring revenue base.
Wedbush wrote that Take-Two trades at 25 times its fiscal 2028 consensus EPS estimate and 23 times its fiscal 2029 estimate, which it views as not fully reflecting the potential scale of GTA VI or the company’s increasing mix of recurring revenue.
The firm maintained its $300 price target, equivalent to roughly 27 times its fiscal 2029 EPS estimate of $11.19, which is above current levels of $252.
Take-Two reported fiscal first quarter net bookings of $1.386 billion, down 3% year over year but above management’s guidance range of $1.32 billion to $1.37 billion and Wedbush’s $1.37 billion estimate.
Non-GAAP earnings per share came in at $0.35, ahead of Wedbush’s $0.34 estimate, the $0.33 consensus estimate and the company’s guidance range of $0.25 to $0.35.
Console, PC and other bookings increased 3% year over year to $646 million, supported by NBA 2K26, Borderlands 4, Sid Meier’s Civilization VII, WWE 2K26, as well as continued contributions from GTA V and GTA+. Mobile bookings declined 7% to $740 million, below Wedbush’s $796 million estimate, amid tougher comparisons and maturation across several titles.
Recurring revenue represented 84% of total bookings during the quarter, down 1% year over year.
For the second quarter, Take-Two guided to net bookings of $1.62 billion to $1.67 billion, below Wedbush’s $1.759 billion estimate and the Street’s $1.749 billion forecast. The company nevertheless reiterated its fiscal 2027 net bookings outlook of $8 billion to $8.2 billion.
Wedbush wrote that the outlook could provide room for upside, pointing to GTA VI pre-orders and the potential contribution from the company’s mobile business. Management characterized GTA VI pre-order volume as exceptional, while Wedbush believes Take-Two’s guidance does not fully account for the potential conversion of that demand into purchases.
The firm also highlighted Take-Two’s shift toward direct-to-consumer distribution for some mobile content. Wedbush wrote that the shift should be close to neutral for bookings but could benefit gross margins because direct sales carry a processing fee of about 5%, compared with a platform fee of roughly 30%.
Wedbush maintained its view that GTA VI will be the primary driver of fiscal 2027, while Grand Theft Auto Online, GTA+ subscriptions and improved mobile monetization could support growth in fiscal 2028 and fiscal 2029. The firm wrote that this recurring revenue base is larger and more durable than the one Take-Two had entering previous major release cycles, including ahead of Red Dead Redemption 2.