Prediction market traders are not convinced that the negotiations Donald Trump promised would start on Monday afternoon will count as the next formal round of US-Iran peace talks.
On Polymarket, the crypto-based betting exchange where users trade contracts on real-world events, the market on whether that round begins by 7 August is priced at just 8%.
Contracts covering 15 August sit at 27%, and those for the end of the month at 45%.
Only by 30 September does the market show real confidence, at 71%, a level that has firmed while the nearer-dated contracts have weakened.
Roughly $8.1 million has been staked across the market.
The scepticism follows a dramatic weekend.
Trump said on Saturday night that he was calling off a planned attack on Iran, telling reporters the following day it would have been the biggest since the Second World War.
He said Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar had urged him to hold back because they believed a deal was within reach.
Speaking aboard Air Force One on Sunday, he said negotiations would begin on Monday afternoon, without naming a venue or the participants.
The proposal under discussion, according to officials involved in mediation, would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and halt attacks across the region in exchange for the United States lifting its naval blockade and allowing Iranian oil exports to resume.
Tehran has been more cautious.
Iran's foreign ministry spokesman, Esmaeil Baghaei, said on Monday that no talks with Washington were under way, and that discussions with Oman over a temporary safe route through the strait were continuing.
That gap between Trump's timetable and Iran's account helps explain the market pricing.
A separate Polymarket contract on whether no qualifying diplomatic meeting occurs before September trades at 30%.
Another, on whether the 60-day negotiating window is extended, sits at 61%.
