Uber Technologies Inc (NYSE:UBER, XETRA:UT8) is expected to report second quarter results that meet or modestly exceed Wall Street expectations, with analysts also anticipating investor attention to center on the company's autonomous vehicle strategy and outlook.
Bank of America reiterated its 'Buy' rating ahead of the results, forecasting gross bookings of $57.3 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $2.77 billion, compared with Wall Street consensus estimates of $57.2 billion and $2.73 billion, respectively.
The bank expects Q2 revenue of about $14.2 billion, in line with consensus, and said its aggregated credit and debit card data point to potential upside in both the US mobility and delivery businesses.
Bank of America estimates gross bookings grew 21% year over year on a constant-currency basis during the quarter, consistent with first-quarter growth. The firm noted its card data showed US online transit spending rose 9% year over year in the second quarter, while online restaurant sales also increased 9%.
Looking ahead, Bank of America expects Uber to guide for third-quarter gross bookings of $58.5 billion to $60 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $0.83 to $0.87, ranges that would bracket current Street expectations. The bank said stronger core operating trends are likely to be partly offset by foreign exchange headwinds.
Beyond the quarterly figures, Bank of America believes commentary on autonomous vehicle partnerships will be the key focus of the earnings call.
"While metrics and fundamentals always matter, we think the US AV supply uncertainty (Waymo partnership news, Lucid's declining cash position) has been the top near-term stock driver, and US supply commentary may be the most important aspect of the Q2 call," the analysts wrote.
The bank expects Uber to address investor concerns by highlighting progress with international autonomous vehicle partnerships as well as its US launch pipeline. It also expects discussion around the rationale for its planned Delivery Hero (XETRA:DHER, OTCQX:DLVHF) deal, US mobility demand, and cross-platform synergies.
Bank of America maintained that Uber remains well positioned despite recent developments involving Waymo.
"While the Waymo news is a setback, we still believe many OEMs will incorporate AV capabilities, Uber has a lot of offer potential AV partners (which will lead to new deals), and it will be several quarters before Waymo's AV ramp will impact Uber results," the analysts wrote.
AV strategy intact, says Jefferies
Jefferies also reiterated its ‘Buy’ rating ahead of Uber's earnings, arguing that recent reports suggesting Waymo plans to end its exclusive arrangement with Uber in Austin and Atlanta after January 2028 do not materially alter Uber's long-term autonomous vehicle strategy.
The firm said the relationship between the two companies had appeared strained for some time as Uber pursued a broader strategy of partnering with multiple autonomous vehicle developers.
"We believe shedding Waymo is likely good for UBER in the long run given it now has more flexibility to scale in the US with many partners," the analysts wrote.
Jefferies noted Uber has built a network of more than 20 autonomous vehicle partnerships over the past two and a half years, including more than 10 in the United States, reducing reliance on any single technology provider.
"We believe UBER is well-positioned to win in AVs without Waymo," the analysts wrote.
The firm added that Uber's global partnerships, large user base and fleet management capabilities position it to help autonomous vehicle developers scale while maintaining an asset-light model. Jefferies also argued that recent weakness in the stock reflects excessive concern about US autonomous vehicle competition and believes continued EBITDA growth could support shares even if valuation multiples remain subdued.
Shares of Uber are down about 14% so far this year, trading hands at $71 on Tuesday.