China could put some support under copper prices; that's according to analysts at Citi, which has repeated a bullish copper outlook, targeting US$14,500 a tonne over the next three months and US$15,000 by year-end.
The American bank sees China’s physical market tighten, and global supply coming under mounting pressure. And, analyst Tom Mulqueen said copper prices had remained resilient despite weaker broader commodity markets and some reduction in speculative positioning.
Although demand growth remains subdued, falling inventories outside the US, particularly in China. and strengthening Chinese import demand point to underlying physical constraints, Citi noted.
Global mine supply remains pressured, while the scrap response to higher prices has been softer than expected.
Elsewhere, RBC Capital Markets offered a similar market assessment, noting that copper rose 1.3% last week while copper equities gained 6%.
In particular, the Yangshan import premium has surged from US$45 a tonne at the beginning of 2026 to roughly US$115–119, reflecting increased competition among Chinese buyers for overseas metal.
Shanghai inventories have also fallen sharply after a VAT fraud crackdown reduced scrap availability and lifted demand for refined imports.
Supply concerns have been compounded by severe weather in Chile. Lundin Mining’s Caserones operation has been suspended since July 18, Candelaria suffered a brief disruption and Antofagasta has deployed heavy equipment to restore access to Los Pelambres.
