Wood Mackenzie data has revealed a sharp decline in Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea crude exports after volumes redirected through the East-West Petroline peaked at about 4.07 million barrels per day in March.
Saudi Arabia shifted virtually all crude exports to the Yanbu terminal following the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz in late February, but Red Sea loadings had fallen to about 2.39 million barrels per day by June.
That represented a 41% decline from the March peak and a 66% reduction from Saudi Arabia’s total January export rate of about 7.96 million barrels per day.
Gulf crude exports collapse
Crude exports from the Middle East Gulf fell 82% between January and June 2026, declining from an average of 18.8 million barrels per day across 370 cargoes to about 3.4 million barrels per day across 71 cargoes.
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz effectively ceased after US-Israel strikes on Iran on February 28.
By early July, large crude carrier movements had recovered to about 4.4 vessels per day, still 30% below pre-conflict levels. Transit vessel numbers remained down 97%, while freight rates were about three times higher than before the conflict.
Iraq, which exported 3.77 million barrels per day in January, recorded no exports in June. Kuwait and Qatar also registered zero crude exports from April because neither producer has a pipeline alternative to Hormuz.
The UAE maintained exports of about 560,000 barrels per day in June, accounting for almost 69% of non-Saudi Gulf exports during June and July.
Saudi Arabia relies heavily on Yanbu
Saudi Arabia responded to the disruption by routing crude through the East-West Petroline to Yanbu on the Red Sea.
Yanbu accounted for 86.7% of Saudi crude liftings in March, rising to 98.6% in June. Only one cargo of about one million barrels departed from the Gulf terminal at Ju’aymah during June.
However, the continued decline in overall volumes suggests the Red Sea route has not fully replaced lost Gulf export capacity.
Saudi crude shipped from Yanbu during June and July was directed largely towards Asian markets, including Egypt’s Ain Sukhna terminal, Malacca, Karachi, Indian ports, South Korea and Japan.
No direct European crude deliveries were recorded from Saudi Red Sea terminals during the period.
New chokepoint risk emerges
Wood Mackenzie said the reliance on Yanbu had shifted rather than removed the region’s strategic export risk, with crude shipments now exposed to potential disruption through the Bab al-Mandeb strait.
“For months, the market treated Yanbu as the answer to Hormuz risk,” Wood Mackenzie data analyst Ian Solis said.
“The problem is that Yanbu has its own chokepoint. If Bab al-Mandeb comes under sustained disruption from a declared Houthi naval blockade, Asia stands to lose a major crude supply artery.
“What looked like diversification was in reality a shift from one strategic bottleneck to another.”