The Trade Desk (Trade Desk Inc (NASDAQ:TTD))'s upcoming print does not look compelling in either direction, according to analysts at Jefferies, who warned that structural challenges are likely to persist regardless of the outcome of the company's dispute with Publicis.
The brokerage said it is modeling second-quarter revenue growth of 8% year-over-year, in line with Street estimates, though it would not rule out a typical beat of around 2%.
Jefferies noted the second-quarter guide likely already reflects a full quarter of impact from the Publicis dispute, which began in mid-March, and that 8% year-over-year growth implies just 9% quarter-over-quarter growth, well below the 13%, 19% and 21% quarter-over-quarter growth Trade Desk posted in the second quarters of 2025, 2024 and 2023, respectively.
For the third quarter, Jefferies is modeling 9% year-over-year growth, also in line with the Street, and called the guide a possible swing factor given the Publicis resolution and new go-to-market leadership. The firm said Street estimates for the third quarter imply 7% quarter-over-quarter growth, consistent with typical seasonality, and that the Publicis resolution along with modest political ad spend could drive upside.
At the same time, Jefferies said it has limited visibility into the concessions made to secure the Publicis resolution and is watching whether recent leadership hires, including a new chief business development officer, chief commercial officer and vice president of client strategy, create near-term disruption to the go-to-market organization.
Looking further out, Jefferies said Street estimates for 2027 revenue growth of 9.4%, roughly stable versus 9.8% in 2026, look aggressive given ongoing structural headwinds, including potential take-rate pressure, risk of incremental share loss and a tougher comparison against this year's political spending tailwind. The firm said stable growth is harder to sustain on a larger revenue base, with two-year growth trends yet to find a floor.
Jefferies pointed to competitive pressure from Amazon as a continuing risk, citing potential take-rate compression and share loss at a time when overall brand budget growth is slowing and spending continues to shift toward performance channels.
The firm also cited reports of declining open web publisher traffic as a potential structural headwind to Trade Desk's non-CTV business, and said it views competitive and operational pressures as stickier than management's more cyclical characterization.
Jefferies lowered its 2027 revenue estimate by 2% and its 2027 EBITDA estimate by 3% to approximately $1.4 billion, in line with the Street.