Live Nation Entertainment Inc (NYSE:LYV) is expected to report continued growth in its upcoming earnings, with UBS analysts forecasting double-digit revenue and adjusted operating income (AOI) growth for the full year as demand for live events remains resilient.
UBS expects Live Nation to benefit from strong global attendance trends, with fan growth across major venues supporting more than 12% growth in total revenue and AOI in 2026. The analysts expect Concerts and Sponsorship to remain the main growth drivers, while Ticketing AOI growth is expected to remain limited due to actions aimed at reducing secondary market activity, along with ongoing investments in artificial intelligence and legal costs.
The analysts highlighted Live Nation’s Venue Nation expansion as a potential long-term growth driver, noting the company is progressing toward its goal of adding around 20 owned and operated venues by the end of 2026. Recent venue openings, including Morton Hall and Mystic Lake Amphitheater, are expected to support additional fan growth and margin expansion.
UBS pointed to industry data as evidence of continued demand for live entertainment. Based on BEA data, U.S. live entertainment spending excluding sports increased 6% year over year in the second quarter through May, compared with 3% growth in the first quarter, slightly outperforming overall recreational spending.
Pollstar data showed Live Nation’s global show sell-through rate exceeded 95% in the second quarter, compared with roughly 80% for other promoters, UBS noted. The company’s average ticket price was $119 during the period, 19% above peers. International markets showed particularly strong performance, with sell-through rates reaching 97%, including 99% in Canada and Europe-based markets, 98% in Mexico and 96% in the UK.
For the second quarter, UBS expects Live Nation’s revenue to increase 8.8% year over year, while AOI is forecast to remain broadly flat at $800 million. The analysts expect Concert revenue to rise 9%, although Concert AOI is projected to decline approximately 9% to $327 million due to a higher mix of third-party venues and a shift toward arena and amphitheater events compared with stadium shows.
UBS expects concert attendance to remain strong, with fan growth of 7% year over year to 47 million despite the impact of the World Cup. Revenue per fan growth is expected to slow to 2% from 5% in the first quarter due to a lower proportion of stadium events.
Sponsorship and advertising is expected to remain a key contributor, with UBS forecasting 14% year-over-year growth in revenue and EBITDA. The analysts noted that Live Nation’s new Spotify partnership is expected to begin contributing in the second half of the year.
Ticketing is expected to see more muted growth as Live Nation continues measures to reduce secondary market activity, including identity verification, account limits and changes to its inventory management tools. UBS expects ticket sales and AOI growth of 1% and 1.6%, respectively, with growth trends expected to improve in the second half as comparisons become easier.
For 2026, UBS expects Live Nation’s total revenue to grow 12% year over year, compared with 9% growth in 2025. The analysts forecast 13% growth in Concert revenue, 15% growth in Sponsorship and 6% growth in Ticketing, supported by a strong slate of tours, festivals and venue expansion.
UBS expects AOI growth to accelerate to 14% in 2026 from 10% in 2025, driven by projected growth of 23% in Concerts and 16% in Sponsorship, while Ticketing AOI growth is expected to remain modest at 3.5%.
The company continues to face regulatory scrutiny, with UBS noting that Live Nation is awaiting judicial review of its settlement with the U.S. Department of Justice under the Tunney Act. State attorneys general are also seeking discovery related to the settlement terms. In addition, Live Nation is seeking to overturn a federal jury verdict from April, with a hearing scheduled for July 29.
UBS wrote that while the outcome of the legal proceedings remains uncertain, the range of potential outcomes has narrowed, with the focus shifting toward behavioral remedies and monetary settlements rather than a structural break-up of the company.
UBS maintained a positive view on Live Nation shares, raising its price target to $208 from $181, above current levels of about $177. The analysts cited improving estimates and a valuation of roughly 16 times forward AOI, which they said remains in line with the company’s expected growth profile.
Live Nation will report its Q2 earnings on July 30.