Punters on the prediction platform Polymarket still expect Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA, XETRA:NVD) to end July as the world's most valuable company, even after a wobble that briefly cost it the crown.
Traders put the chipmaker's chances at 70%, well ahead of Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL, XETRA:APC) on 29%, with Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOG), Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) and the rest of big tech trailing at less than 2% each.
The market has swung sharply this month.
Nvidia's odds have slid 18 points in recent trading, with Apple gaining the same amount, as a sell-off in semiconductor and AI stocks reshuffled the rankings.
The shift followed a dramatic session late last week.
Apple, worth about $4.8 trillion, briefly overtook Nvidia on $4.92 trillion during Friday trading, reclaiming the top spot for the first time since April 2025.
Nvidia shares fell almost 4% at the open before paring losses, as investors questioned whether the vast sums poured into AI infrastructure will pay off.
Those doubts have intensified as OpenAI and Anthropic, two of the most valuable private companies ever, filed to go public.
Nvidia had led the global rankings since June 2025 and in October became the first company to cross $5 trillion.
Apple, by contrast, has been the standout performer of the so-called Magnificent Seven this year, up more than 22%, helped by a warm reception for its redesigned Siri voice assistant.
Its relatively light spending on AI has ironically become a strength as the chip trade unwinds.
The contest remains close, with barely $1 trillion separating the pair at times on Friday.
Volumes on the Polymarket contract have topped $3.1 million, underlining the interest in a rivalry that has come to symbolise the wider debate over AI valuations.
Both companies remain within touching distance of the $5 trillion mark.
