H&P Research has assigned Tamboran Resources Corporation (NYSE:TBN, ASX:TBN, OTC:TBNRL, FRA:O8R) a risked valuation implying 113% upside, concluding that the company’s record stimulation campaign in the Beetaloo Basin has materially reduced execution risk ahead of first gas.
The research house maintained its risked net asset valuation of US$67 per Tamboran US-listed share, equivalent to A$0.47 per ASX-listed CDI and more than double the prevailing market price.
The research house concluded that Tamboran’s record Beetaloo Basin stimulation campaign had materially reduced execution risk, while first gas, lower well costs and a potential Orion farm-out could provide further catalysts during the second half of 2026.
H&P derived an unrisked valuation of more than US$7.1 billion, or US$196 per share, and a risked valuation of about US$2.4 billion. The assessment includes Tamboran’s initial pilot development, the larger Orion project, EP 161 and its interest in the Beetaloo Central Development Area.
Record campaign reduces development risk
The positive conclusion followed Tamboran’s completion of stimulation, cleanout and completion activities at the Shenandoah South 3H, 4H and 5H wells in the Northern Pilot Area.
Liberty Energy placed 178 fracture stages across around 30,000 feet of horizontal well length, making it the largest stimulation campaign completed in the Beetaloo Basin.
The program averaged 6.7 stages per day and established basin records of 12 stages in a single day and more than 20 hours of pumping operations per day.
H&P said the performance was comparable with mature US shale regions and demonstrated that the repeatable “manufacturing” model used to reduce costs in North America could be applied in the Beetaloo.
First gas remains key catalyst
The three wells will now be connected to the Sturt Plateau Compression Facility, where construction is nearing completion within its A$141 million gross budget.
Commissioning is expected to begin shortly, keeping first gas sales to the Northern Territory Government on track for the September quarter of 2026.
The APA-owned pipeline connecting the facility to the Amadeus Gas Pipeline and the Northern Territory market has already been built and is undergoing final commissioning.
Tamboran has also started drilling the Shenandoah South 7H, 8H and 9H backfill wells, which are expected to be stimulated during the second half and connected as required to maintain plateau production.
Local sand could lower well costs
The completed campaign included the first use of locally sourced “Beetaloo Red” sand across 10 stages of the SS-4H well.
H&P estimates that successful adoption of local proppant could reduce costs by around US$4 million for each 10,000-foot well by cutting transport and logistics expenses.
The firm said the sand trial, combined with the operational records achieved during stimulation, marked the beginning of Tamboran’s cost-reduction strategy.
About Tamboran Resources
Tamboran Resources is developing natural gas assets across the Beetaloo Sub-basin in Australia’s Northern Territory.
Following its acquisition of Falcon Oil & Gas subsidiaries in May 2026, Tamboran increased its Beetaloo position to around 2.9 million net acres and lifted its interests in the Northern Pilot Area to 44% and Orion to 78%.
H&P said Tamboran was funded through 2028 and entered potential Orion farm-out negotiations from a stronger position following the successful stimulation campaign and external validation of Beetaloo acreage values.