Walt Disney Co (NYSE:DIS, XETRA:WDP) is scheduled to report fiscal third quarter results on August 5, with UBS analysts expecting accelerating earnings growth as first-half headwinds ease and forecasting the company will maintain its fiscal 2026 guidance.
UBS expects Disney to report fiscal third-quarter revenue of $25.4 billion and segment operating income of $5.16 billion, compared with Wall Street expectations of $5.24 billion and company guidance of about $5.3 billion.
The firm forecasts earnings per share of $1.91, above the consensus estimate of $1.85 and up 18% from a year earlier.
The analysts wrote that growth should be supported by high single-digit expansion in the Experiences segment and double-digit growth in the company's streaming business, while Sports operating income is expected to decline by the mid-teens due to higher sports rights costs. They also expect box office performance to remain soft overall.
For fiscal 2026, UBS continues to forecast earnings per share of $6.90, representing 16% year-over-year growth and broadly in line with Disney's guidance. The estimate includes a roughly 4% benefit from an extra week in the fiscal fourth quarter and is expected to be driven by continued strength in Experiences, improving Sports profitability and streaming margins above 10%.
In Experiences, UBS expects revenue to rise 8.7% year over year and operating income to increase 9.6% as the business laps upfront cruise costs and pre-opening expenses related to World of Frozen. The analysts expect growth to accelerate further in the fourth quarter before receiving an additional boost from the extra fiscal week.
UBS believes domestic attendance improved during the quarter, with attendance roughly flat from a year earlier after declining 1% in the prior quarter, as comparisons related to Epic Universe's opening and international visitation became less challenging. Per-capita guest spending is expected to remain strong, increasing about 4% year over year.
Within Entertainment, UBS forecasts revenue growth of 8.7% and operating income growth of 48% to approximately $1.5 billion, driven by streaming gains and the consolidation of Fubo. The analysts expect streaming subscription revenue to increase 11% year over year, while streaming operating margins improve by 350 basis points from a year earlier to 10.1%, despite sequential pressure from higher international content spending.
The analysts also expect mixed theatrical performance during the quarter, citing stronger box office results from The Devil Wears Prada 2 and Toy Story 5, offset by weaker performances from Star Wars: The Mandalorian & Grogu and the live-action Moana.
In Sports, UBS forecasts revenue growth of 4.7%, including an approximately 3% contribution from NFL Network, while operating income is expected to decline 14% to $891 million as double-digit growth in sports rights expenses, including NBA and WWE contracts, weighs on profitability.
The analysts expect advertising revenue to increase more than 10% on stronger NBA ratings and noted that Disney recorded its first quarter of year-over-year television viewership growth since the first quarter of 2024, helped by NBA Finals audiences. UBS expects subscription and affiliate revenue growth of around 5%, with streaming gains partly offset by the NFL Network no longer being carried on Comcast's Xfinity platform.
UBS also noted that management expects mid-single-digit operating income growth for the Sports segment for the full fiscal year, with the firm anticipating a stronger fourth quarter supported by easier comparisons related to sports rights costs and last year's ESPN direct-to-consumer launch expenses.