Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ:AMZN) is well-positioned heading into its second-quarter earnings report, according to Jefferies, which reiterated the e-commerce and cloud computing giant as a top pick, citing resilient consumer spending during Prime Day, accelerating Amazon Web Services (AWS) growth and what it views as a discounted valuation.
Jefferies wrote that its proprietary survey of 685 consumers indicated that Prime members continued to increase spending despite inflationary pressures. Among shoppers who participated in Prime Day this year and last year, 54% reported spending more than 10% more year over year, while Amazon remained the preferred shopping destination for many consumers.
Jefferies wrote that its survey indicated Prime members increased their spending during this year's Prime Day, with 54% of returning participants reporting they spent more than 10% more than a year earlier. The analysts also highlighted that higher prices have not discouraged shoppers, noting that 25% of respondents said they use Amazon more to seek value amid inflation.
Beyond retail, Jefferies highlighted AWS as a key driver heading into the quarter. The firm expects AWS backlog growth to continue accelerating from the 93% year-over-year increase reported in the first quarter and approach $500 billion, supporting further revenue growth.
Jefferies expects AWS revenue growth of about 32% in the second quarter, while noting investor expectations are for growth of more than 33%, compared with 28% growth in the first quarter.
The analysts also highlighted several indicators supporting AWS demand, including Anthropic's expanded long-term cloud commitment, recent EC2 price increases and growing demand for AI inferencing workloads.
On valuation, Jefferies wrote that Amazon trades at approximately 12 times next-12-month enterprise value to EBITDA, below Alphabet at roughly 17 times and Walmart at about 19 times, as well as below Amazon's own 10-year average multiple.
Shares traded hands at $247 on Tuesday afternoon, up about 7% so far this year.
Jefferies highlighted that Amazon shares have fallen about 7% since first quarter results, which it views as creating a more attractive entry point. The analysts maintained that improving AWS fundamentals and resilient retail performance support a favorable risk-reward profile.
Looking ahead to the earnings release, Jefferies noted that investors will be watching capital expenditure guidance and free cash flow, signs of continued AWS demand, and the impact of Prime Day shifting into the second quarter this year, which could create more challenging retail comparisons in the third quarter.