Moderna Inc (NASDAQ:MRNA, XETRA:0QF) is expected to report second quarter results on July 31, with investors focused on the impact of seasonal COVID-19 vaccine demand and updates on the company’s late-stage pipeline, including anticipated Phase III melanoma data.
Jefferies analysts expect a largely uneventful earnings report after Moderna previously guided for second-quarter revenue of $50 million to $100 million, down from $389 million in the first quarter, reflecting the seasonal nature of COVID vaccine sales.
The analysts forecast a loss of $1.99 per share on revenue of about $100 million, compared with consensus expectations for a loss of $1.97 per share.
“COVID sales are mostly weighted to H2 2026,” Jefferies wrote, noting that lower vaccination rates year-over-year are also expected to weigh on near-term revenue.
The firm expects management could reiterate its 2026 revenue outlook for growth of up to 10% year over year, which would imply revenue of more than $2.1 billion.
Jefferies said potential upside to Moderna’s 2026 sales outlook could come from stabilization in US COVID revenue, which declined from approximately $1.2 billion in 2025. The firm expects international partnerships, including those in Canada, Australia and the UK, to contribute to growth and help create a more balanced revenue mix between US and ex-US markets.
Investors are also watching Moderna’s pipeline progress, particularly Phase III data for mRNA-4157, the company’s personalized cancer vaccine candidate being evaluated in combination with Merck & Co.’s Keytruda in melanoma. Jefferies highlighted the upcoming Phase III INTerpath-001 trial data as a major potential catalyst for the stock, with results expected in the second half of 2026.
The analysts pointed to recent five-year Phase IIb data as supportive of the ongoing Phase III study in high-risk adjuvant melanoma, which enrolled 1,089 patients. Jefferies wrote that management appears confident in the timing of the readout based on event accrual and said a statistically significant result could have a meaningful impact on investor sentiment.
Beyond oncology, Moderna has several additional potential catalysts in 2026, including regulatory action for its mFluSiva flu vaccine candidate, which Jefferies expects could receive US approval by August 5 following a positive advisory committee review. However, the analysts expect commercial sales to begin in 2027.
The firm also highlighted potential Phase III updates for Moderna’s norovirus vaccine candidate mRNA-1403 and pivotal data for mRNA-3927, an investigational treatment for propionic acidemia, as additional events to watch later this year.
Jefferies noted that Moderna’s shares have outperformed the broader biotechnology sector year to date, gaining 124% compared with a 30% rise in the XBI biotechnology ETF, with much of the recent momentum tied to expectations around the company’s oncology pipeline and the potential of its mRNA technology platform.
Shares of Moderna traded hands at $67 on Tuesday afternoon.