VivoPower PLC (NASDAQ:VIVO, FRA:51J)’s pivot toward acquiring and developing power-secured land and powered-shell data center infrastructure has earned it an Outperform rating and a $10 price target in initial coverage from Noble Capital Markets.
The research firm said VivoPower believes it is targeting one of the most constrained inputs in the AI value chain: grid-connected power capacity.
Rather than owning and operating IT infrastructure, the company seeks to generate returns through land development, power procurement and long-term leasing arrangements, an approach Noble said provides exposure to AI infrastructure demand while reducing technology and operating risks.
VivoPower has assembled a portfolio of approximately 182 MW of completed or secured capacity across Norway and the UAE. The company is focused on markets offering low-cost renewable energy and favorable grid connection timelines, including the Nordic region, where power costs are below $0.05 per kilowatt-hour, and the Middle East, where sovereign AI initiatives are driving demand for digital infrastructure.
The portfolio is anchored by the Mo i Rana campus in Norway, the company's only operational asset, acquired in April 2026 for approximately $41 million. The facility currently has 41.5 MW of energized capacity powered by hydroelectric energy, with access to costs below $0.035 per kilowatt-hour, and an additional 40 MW of expansion capacity available for future development.
Based on management's estimates, the facility is expected to generate approximately $31 million in annualized revenue and $10 million in adjusted EBITDA under its current operating model, plus an additional $1.9 million in annual EBITDA from the Statnett reserve markets.
Management also intends to develop an additional 40 MW AI-ready facility utilizing the site's expansion capacity. Upon completion of the full 81.5 MW AI campus, targeted for mid-2028, management estimates annualized revenue and EBITDA of approximately $140 million and $130 million, respectively.
The portfolio also includes a 100 MW site in the UAE.
According to the report, land acquisition costs range from $50,000 to $500,000 per megawatt, with build costs below $10 million per megawatt. Management believes projects can be refinanced at attractive cap rates given long-term contracted lease structures supporting stabilized cash flows.
Noble's $10 price target reflects an EV/2028 EBITDA target multiple of 5.5x, applied to a calendar year 2028 EBITDA estimate of $121 million, and assumes a fully diluted share count of 62.6 million shares. The firm noted that shares trade at 0.9x EV to its 2028 EBITDA estimate, compared with an industry peer average of 11x.
Noble said potential catalysts include execution on current capacity development, tenant leasing announcements, project-level refinancing events, expansion of the secured power pipeline, and broader investor recognition of power-constrained infrastructure assets as a differentiated AI investment theme.