Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (NYSE:CMG) is expected to report second quarter same-store sales roughly in line with Wall Street expectations, while momentum could improve in the second half of 2026 as pricing actions, menu innovation and operational initiatives begin to offset ongoing macroeconomic pressures, according to a preview note from UBS.
Ahead of Chipotle's July 29 earnings report, UBS said it expects second-quarter same-store sales growth of 1.2%, close to the consensus estimate of 1.3%.
The firm expects sales trends to have accelerated from the first quarter, supported by menu innovations including Cilantro Lime Sauce and Chipotle Honey Chicken, marketing initiatives such as the Summer of Extras campaign, and a potential boost from the FIFA World Cup.
The analysts said investor focus will likely be on third-quarter sales trends, upcoming limited-time offers, marketing initiatives, catering expansion, operational improvements and efforts to strengthen the company's value proposition.
While UBS expects macroeconomic headwinds to persist, particularly among consumers earning less than $100,000 annually, younger consumers and Hispanic consumers, it believes Chipotle is positioned for stronger same-store sales and transaction growth in the second half of the year.
The firm cited additional limited-time menu offerings, an enhanced marketing strategy, digital initiatives, the April relaunch of Chipotle Rewards and broader catering rollout expected by the fourth quarter as potential growth drivers. UBS also noted the company's high-efficiency equipment package could generate meaningful improvements in comparable sales through operational gains.
UBS expects Chipotle's pricing strategy to remain effective, with full-year pricing likely to finish toward the upper end of the company's 1% to 2% target range. The firm forecasts 2026 same-store sales growth of 1.4%.
On profitability, UBS models second-quarter restaurant-level margins of 25%, down about 230 basis points from a year earlier due primarily to higher beef, dairy and avocado costs. However, it expects margins to improve during the second half of 2026 as food inflation eases and pricing actions increasingly offset cost pressures.
UBS forecasts second-quarter earnings per share of $0.32 and full-year 2026 earnings per share of $1.15.
The firm maintained a $45 price target, saying a return to stronger transaction and sales momentum could provide upside for the shares. This implies upside from current levels of about $35.