Two of the most closely watched hurricane forecasters have moved in opposite directions on the 2026 Atlantic season, leaving insurers without a clear steer on the peril that shapes their profits (and losses).
Colorado State University, whose tropical meteorology team issues one of the industry's benchmark forecasts, has cut its numbers again.
It now expects nine named tropical storms, down from 11, alongside 4 hurricanes and just 1 major hurricane.
Strong El Niño conditions and wind shear, which is the change in wind speed and direction with height that tears developing storms apart, lie behind the downgrade.
The university has also trimmed its landfall probabilities, putting the chance of a major hurricane striking anywhere on the US coastline at 17%, down from 24%.
Tropical Storm Risk, a rival forecaster, has gone the other way, lifting its expectations to five hurricanes and two major hurricanes on more favourable conditions in the subtropical Atlantic.
The disagreement matters because weather claims drive the profitability of the global insurance and reinsurance industry, and analysts treat meteorological data as an early warning of what quarterly earnings will look like.
That is the argument set out by Philip Kett and Derald Goh, insurance analysts at investment bank Jefferies, in their monthly weather review.
The season is already underway, with Tropical Storm Arthur becoming the first named storm on 17 June and bringing flash flooding and tornadoes to the southern states.
Severe convective storms, the industry's term for thunderstorms that produce hail, tornadoes and damaging winds, have already cost US insurers $22 billion this year, according to Gallagher Re.
That marks the eleventh consecutive year in which such losses have topped $20 billion, though the figure sits well below the five-year first-half average of $38 billion.
Europe, meanwhile, has been contending with heat rather than wind.
Western Europe recorded its hottest June on record, with average air temperatures more than 3 degrees Celsius above the long-term average and a third major heatwave in six weeks.
Wildfires burned 56% more land than usual across the EU, with France alone losing four times its seasonal average.
The UK broke its June temperature record three times, most recently on 26 June at 37.3 degrees Celsius, despite a cloudy and damp first half of the month.
Venezuela suffered two major earthquakes on 24 June, measuring 7.5 and 7.2, the deadliest since 1812.
Jefferies expects insured losses there to be minimal, with none of the insurers or reinsurers it covers carrying exposure.
