SanDisk (NASDAQ:SNDK) could see upside in its upcoming fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 report, according to Wedbush Securities, which raised its price target on the stock to $2,000 from $1,200.
The semiconductor firm's management had guided fiscal fourth-quarter sales to a range of $7.75 billion to $8.25 billion, with non-GAAP earnings per share of $30 to $33.
Wedbush said that outlook implied only mid to high teens growth in average selling prices under its prior model, but conversations with industry contacts suggested pricing gains in the high double digits, leading the firm to conclude SanDisk's initial guidance underestimated the scale of pricing gains.
Wedbush's updated estimates now assume blended bit ASPs rise roughly 30% quarter over quarter, a figure the firm still characterizes as conservative given industry trends and SanDisk's pricing strategy, even after the company posted triple-digit sequential ASP growth in its fiscal third quarter.
Looking further out, Wedbush raised its fiscal 2027 estimates, citing a higher revised fiscal 2026 base along with pricing data for the current September quarter that came in above its prior projections. The firm believes that quarter will likely see gains of more than 20%, with raw NAND prices climbing above $0.30 per gigabyte and finished goods, particularly enterprise SSDs, commanding a further premium. Wedbush's own model assumes double-digit gains, below the 20% threshold, reflecting its expectation that a larger share of SanDisk's NAND output will move under long-term supply and capacity agreements, referred to as SCAs, consistent with recent management commentary.
Those revisions push Wedbush's fiscal 2027 EPS estimate to $225.99 from $194.93, on projected revenue of $55.83 billion and gross margin of 84.7%.
The firm expects earnings strength to continue through fiscal 2027 and 2028, pointing to limited new fab capacity coming online before late 2027 or 2028 and the stabilizing effect of long-term supply agreements on pricing. Wedbush's model has earnings peaking in fiscal 2028 at approximately $264 per share.
Wedbush said it does not have a firm view on when NAND supply will normalize, citing its belief that supply currently runs well below true demand, that demand will keep accelerating through the end of the decade, and that uncertainty remains around the pace of future supply additions. Still, the firm argued that long-term supply agreements should allow for a more gradual decline in margins and pricing once existing contracts expire, offering greater visibility into earnings and cash flow than memory vendors have historically provided.
Shares of SanDisk were up 12% on Thursday afternoon.