Exxon Mobil Corp (NYSE:XOM, XETRA:XONA) updated its second quarter 2026 earnings considerations after the market close on Tuesday, prompting UBS to slightly lower its earnings estimate while noting stronger quarter-over-quarter performance across the company's major business segments.
Following the filing, UBS reduced its second quarter earnings per share estimate to about $3.14 from its prior forecast of $3.20. The revised estimate is below the current Wall Street consensus of approximately $3.43 per share.
The analysts said the quarter-over-quarter improvement was driven primarily by higher crude oil prices, stronger refining margins and improved commodity chemicals margins.
UBS also said it had lowered its 2027 forecasts after its commodities team revised its oil price outlook. The firm now expects West Texas Intermediate crude to average $75 per barrel in 2027, down from its previous estimate of $80 per barrel.
Based on ExxonMobil's earnings considerations filing, UBS now expects upstream earnings of $8.63 billion for the second quarter, up from $5.7 billion in the first quarter and $5.4 billion in the year-earlier period.
The bank also raised its estimate for Energy Products earnings to $3.45 billion, compared with a loss of $556 million in the first quarter and earnings of $1.4 billion a year earlier.
For Chemical Products, UBS increased its forecast to $1.22 billion from $110 million in the prior quarter and $293 million a year earlier. Specialty Products earnings are now projected at $891 million, compared with $651 million in the first quarter and $780 million in the second quarter of 2025.
UBS noted that production disruptions related to the Middle East would reduce earnings by an estimated $700 million in the upstream business, $300 million in Energy Products and $200 million in Specialty Products, lowering total earnings by about $1.2 billion, or $0.28 per share.
"If these were to be treated as special items, earnings would be closer to $3.43 per share," the analysts wrote.
The firm also noted that ExxonMobil expects to record a $1.1 billion charge related to other items, including reserves, which UBS excluded from its clean earnings estimate.
In addition, UBS said timing effects would provide a $2.6 billion benefit to earnings. However, because those gains largely reverse first-quarter impacts, the firm included them in its clean earnings per share calculations.
ExxonMobil will report its Q2 earnings on July 31. The company’s shares traded hands at $140 on Wednesday afternoon, up almost 17% in the year to date.