BofA is turning more cautious on commodities broadly, but uranium is bucking the trend as the firm's top conviction call for 2026.
The bank's commodities team cut 32 price objectives across its coverage, including 21 in precious metals, five in base metals and four in steel, and lowered 2026 estimates for 31 of the 33 companies it tracks.
Yet even with the broader pullback, uranium stands out. BofA sees 23% upside on a 2026 average basis versus spot, the biggest gap in its coverage universe, followed by nickel at 11% and platinum and silver both at 10%. Cameco Corporation (TSX:CCO), Freeport-McMoRan Inc (NYSE:FCX, XETRA:FPMB) and Pan American Silver Corp. (TSX:PAA, NASDAQ:PAAS) are the firm's top picks.
Cameco stays the top uranium call
Uranium remains BofA's favorite theme in the sector. Spot prices are still trading 23% below the firm's 2026 average forecast, a gap it attributes to contracting frictions, tight supply discipline and utilities restocking their inventories.
Cameco holds onto its spot as BofA's top uranium pick, with the bank citing the company's leverage to higher realized prices, a solid balance sheet and about 48% upside to its price target. The firm also flagged Cameco's 49% stake in Westinghouse Electric Company as a benefit tied to the broader buildout of new nuclear capacity in the US.
Gold loses some shine as rate hikes take hold
The bigger story behind the downgrades is a shift in Fed policy. With the central bank moving from an easing stance toward raising rates to fight inflation, BofA says gold's upside potential has been cut roughly in half. The firm now sees its $6,000 an ounce target as out of reach for the time being.
BofA trimmed its 2026 gold forecast by 14% to $4,360 an ounce, though it still sees room for a rebound to $4,813 in 2027 if rate hikes wrap up.
Longer term, the firm actually raised its outlook, lifting its long-term gold forecast 17% to $3,500 an ounce.
Platinum and silver are looking more attractive than gold right now, each offering 10% upside versus spot for 2026 despite also seeing forecast cuts.
BofA added Pan American Silver as a new top pick in precious metals, pointing to undervalued silver growth, improving capital returns, upside from dormant assets and 56% potential upside to its price target.
Copper picks matter more than the macro
In base metals, BofA is leaning less on broad market direction and more on individual names, noting that copper is already trading through its 2026 forecast. Freeport-McMoRan remains the firm's top base metals pick, backed by roughly 35% upside to its price target, exposure to copper through an ongoing operating turnaround, and growth potential the firm says isn't fully priced in yet.
Aluminum didn't fare as well. BofA cut its price forecasts materially, leaving little room for upside against current spot levels.
The team expects choppy conditions to persist through autumn before a potential recovery later in the year.