There is still limited evidence artificial intelligence is having a broad negative impact on the U.S. labor market, although some early trends suggest AI adoption could be influencing employment in certain sectors, according to Deutsche Bank analysts.
In a monthly chartbook tracking AI's effects on the labor market, the analysts noted that firm-level AI adoption remains relatively low but continues to increase. Industries with higher adoption rates are also more likely to use AI to perform existing tasks.
The analysts wrote that US job openings have strengthened in recent months, with AI-exposed occupations such as software engineering outperforming.
While there is little evidence AI is contributing to a broad increase in layoffs, Deutsche Bank identified an early relationship between AI adoption rates and changes in Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) layoff data since 2019. The relationship was more pronounced in sectors using AI to replace existing tasks.
On wages, the analysts wrote there does not appear to be an adverse impact from AI adoption, although wage growth has slowed more rapidly on average in AI-exposed industries.
Deutsche Bank also noted that unemployment among younger workers has declined in recent months but remains above 2019 levels, particularly for college-educated individuals.