Traders on the prediction market Polymarket see a real chance that oil prices fall further this month, having already retreated to levels last seen before the Iran war.
The market, which asks what price West Texas Intermediate crude will hit during July, gives a 24% probability that the US benchmark drops as low as $60 a barrel.
That would mark its weakest level since late January, before military action in the Middle East sent prices above $120.
The $60 line has drawn the most money of any level on the market, with more than $85,000 wagered, suggesting traders regard a deeper slide as a live possibility.
The most likely single outcome remains a fall to $65, priced at 63%, with WTI currently trading near $68.
The market sees far less scope for a rebound, giving only a 15% chance that oil climbs back to $80 and a 7% chance of reaching $85.
Those upside probabilities have collapsed in recent trading, with the odds on $85 down 44%, reflecting easing fears of supply disruption.
Prices have fallen for three consecutive sessions as commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital transit route for global oil, continued to recover.
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have restored exports close to pre-war levels, pushing daily flows through the strait back above 10 million barrels.
President Donald Trump said this week that negotiations with Iran were progressing well following mediated talks in Doha.
