Citi expects Drax Group (LSE:DRX) annual earnings to be heavily weighted towards the second half, with the broker forecasting first-half EBITDA of £270 million against a full-year estimate of £688 million.
That implies a pronounced back-end loaded year for the power generator, or £663 million of FY26 EBITDA excluding BSIF, as both Biomass and FlexGen are expected to contribute more meaningfully later in the year.
The broker, in a note, said this reflects optimisation and production phasing, with biomass output increasingly expected to be reshaped into the second half to capture higher spreads.
FlexGen is also expected to follow the same pattern, with limited open-cycle gas turbine contribution in the first half, a ramp-up into the second half and weaker pumped storage hydro earnings following the Cruachan outage.
Citi forecasts first-half net debt of around £1 billion, reflecting the timing of ROC monetisation and dividend outflows. Below EBITDA, it expects net interest costs of around £36 million.
The broker does not expect material near-term updates on DC deals or new guidance when Drax reports first-half results on 30 July. Instead, it said investor focus is likely to remain on completion of the BSIF transaction, ahead of what Citi expects could be a more substantive update later in the year.
