PepsiCo Inc (NASDAQ:PEP, XETRA:PEP) earnings outlook was trimmed by Bank of America analysts ahead of the company’s second quarter results, with softer-than-expected performance in its North American snacks business offsetting steadier international trends.
The analysts lowered their fiscal 2026 earnings per share (EPS) estimate to $8.61 from $8.65 and slightly reduced their second quarter forecast to $2.18 from $2.19. The revision reflects weaker performance at PepsiCo Foods North America (PFNA) and expectations that its recovery will take longer to materialize in the second half of the year.
For the quarter, Bank of America now expects consolidated organic sales growth of 2.9%, down from a prior estimate of 3.1%. The full-year organic sales growth outlook was also cut to 3.0% from 3.4%.
Despite the downward revisions, the analysts noted continued strength in international markets, which are now expected to deliver 5.4% organic sales growth in the second quarter, up from a prior forecast of 4.9%. They suggested PepsiCo could still reiterate its full-year guidance when it reports results on July 9, though the underlying mix of performance may be less favorable.
The primary pressure point remains PFNA, where scanner data indicated a sequential deterioration in trends during the quarter. NielsenIQ data showed retail sales growth slowing to a 1.0% decline in the second quarter from 0.6% growth in the first. Bank of America attributed the weakness to macroeconomic pressures, inflation, and unfavorable weather conditions around Memorial Day.
As a result, the analysts now expect flat organic sales growth for PFNA in the second quarter, compared with a previous estimate of 1.5%, and have reduced their full-year forecast to 0.2% from 1.4%. They also pointed to softer sequential performance across major brands including Lay’s, Doritos, Tostitos, Cheetos, and Ruffles.
In contrast, PepsiCo’s beverages division showed modest improvement. Retail sales in North America rose 0.3% year over year in the second quarter, while volumes fell 3.5%, an improvement from the prior quarter. However, analysts noted ongoing challenges for core brands, with Pepsi continuing to lose market share and Mountain Dew underperforming its category.
Bank of America also lowered its price objective on PepsiCo to $164 from $173, based on 18 times estimated 2027 earnings, down from a prior multiple of 19 times. Shares traded hands at about $142 on Friday afternoon.
The firm maintained its ‘Neutral’ rating on the stock.