Carvana Co. (NYSE:CVNA) may see slower retail unit growth in the second quarter, according to Jefferies analysts, though the firm maintained its Buy rating and $95 price target, citing confidence in the company's longer-term outlook.
This price target implies upside from current levels of about $65.
Jefferies' analysis, based on web-scraped data, suggests Carvana's retail unit growth eased to below 30% in recent weeks and to the low-20% range in the most recent week of June. That marks a deceleration from growth rates of 38% in April and 33% in May, as well as 40% in the first quarter.
The firm now estimates second-quarter retail unit growth of 33% year over year, assuming sales trends during the second half of June follow seasonal patterns seen last year.
That forecast is about 2% below Wall Street consensus expectations for 37% growth and would represent Carvana's first retail unit miss in 10 quarters.
Jefferies lowered its second-quarter unit and EBITDA estimates by roughly 1% to reflect the recent slowdown. However, analysts left their forecasts for the second half of 2026 and beyond unchanged, saying the softer growth could be linked to temporary constraints associated with the company's expansion efforts and infrastructure build-out.
The firm noted that inventory levels continued to increase at a mid- to high-20% annual pace throughout the quarter, although growth has moderated compared with late 2025 and early 2026. Jefferies attributed the slower inventory expansion to tougher comparisons, efforts to improve performance at certain facilities, and uneven timing of ADESA site conversions.
At the same time, pricing trends remained supportive. Jefferies wrote that Carvana's average selling prices increased by a mid-single-digit to high-single-digit percentage year over year in each week of the second quarter, even as broader used-car prices declined in April and May. The analysts also noted that lower financing rates have helped preserve affordability for customers despite higher vehicle prices.